Latest Research
Mortgage Rates Hit 6.53% as Housing Affordability Reaches Breaking Point
Housing is officially in crisis mode. Mortgage rates just hit 6.53% for the fourth straight week of increases, while home prices remain near record highs and inventory stays painfully tight. Meanwhile, corporate profits are surging to new records tha
The Wire
US National Debt Hits $39.2 Trillion as Growth Rate Stays Stubbornly High
The US national debt climbed to $39.18 trillion as of May 28th, adding $13 billion in a single day and maintaining its relentless 6.12% annual growth rate. That's roughly $2.3...
Bond Markets Signal Growing Confidence in Fed’s Next Move
The 2-year Treasury yield dropped to 3.99% yesterday, sliding from 4.13% just six trading days ago — a move that suggests bond traders are increasingly confident the Fed's...
10-Year Treasury Yield Slides to 4.45% as Bond Market Signals Cooling
The 10-year Treasury yield dropped to 4.45% on Wednesday, marking a five-day slide from 4.57% to its lowest level in over a week. That's a 0.12 percentage point decline in just...
The Morning Bell: Bond Market Breaks From Energy Narrative as Real Growth Questions Surface
Forget oil for a moment. The bond market is quietly telling a different story this morning, one that has nothing to do with the Strait of Hormuz and everything to do with whether...
Markets Test New Productivity Narrative as Rate Path Stays Muddy
Markets are wrestling with a fundamental question this Friday: is the corporate productivity boom strong enough to carry stocks higher even with rates stuck above 4%? Yesterday's...
Energy Shock Tests Consumer Balance Sheets Just When They Can’t Afford It
What Happened
Fed Pivots From Energy Crisis to Growth Questions as Markets Signal New Phase
The bond market is quietly telling us the energy crisis chapter is ending, and asking what comes next. With Treasury yields backing off recent peaks and the yield curve continuing...
The Morning Bell: Jobs Market Reality Check Arrives as Corporate Productivity Boom Masks Labor Weakness
The jobs market just sent its first clear distress signal in months, and it couldn't have come at a more interesting time. While corporate profits are hitting records on the back...
Free Research Guides
Evergreen explainers powered by live government data.
Yield Curve Explained
What the curve tells you about recession risk, rate expectations, and market sentiment.
GuideHow to Read the Jobs Report
Step-by-step breakdown of the BLS Employment Situation report and how markets react.
GuideCPI Explained
Headline vs core CPI, what the Fed actually watches, and how each release moves markets.
GuideGDP Explained
What GDP measures, why revisions matter, and how to read the BEA release like a pro.
GuideTreasury Market Guide
Bills, notes, bonds, and what Treasury yields are telling you about the economy.
GuideKey Inflation Indicators
CPI, PCE, PPI — what they each measure, when they release, and which one matters most.
Major indices and commodities