The Iran conflict is creating a perfect storm of economic contradictions — oi…
The Iran conflict is creating a perfect storm of economic contradictions — oil prices are surging while markets stay oddly calm, the Fed is holding rates steady while mortgage costs spike, and forecasters are splitting into wildly different camps about what comes next. When energy shocks meet monetary policy uncertainty, something usually breaks, and today’s data suggests we’re getting close to finding out what that will be.
Today’s Briefing
Energy Shock Reality Hits Home as Markets Brace for Fed Response
The Morning Bell
The energy crisis that started a month ago is forcing its way into every corner of the economic conversation. With oil holding near $94 and the Strait of Hormuz still closed, yesterday’s import price surge confirms what traders have been pricing in f
Fed Holds Steady at 3.75% as Energy Crisis Reshapes Rate Path
Fed Watch
10Y-2Y Spread: 0.49% (normal)
When Forecasters Start Diverging This Much, Someone’s About to Be Very Wrong
News Wire
WHAT HAPPENED
Economic Wire: Iran war will spare no major economy, says OECD — but the UK
News Wire
The UK faces deeper economic damage from the ongoing Iran conflict than other developed economies, according to the OECD’s interim outlook released Thursday.
Markets Shrug Off Geopolitical Crisis — For Now
News Wire
According to CNBC, President Trump said oil and stock market reactions to the Iran conflict have been less severe than he expected, expressing confidence in the war effort and predicting economic…
Mortgage Rates Jump Most Since Election Week
Data Wire
The 30-year mortgage rate spiked 0.16 percentage points to 6.38% this week — the biggest single-week jump since November’s post-election surge. After flirting with the 6% level just three weeks ago, r
Jobless Claims Edge Higher as Energy Crisis Complicates Fed’s Next Move
Data Wire
Initial jobless claims ticked up to 210,000 last week from 205,000 the week prior — a modest 5,000 increase that might normally fly under the radar. But with oil trading near $95 following the Strait
National Debt Drops for Third Day as Treasury Manages Cash Flow
Data Wire
The US national debt fell by $9.3 billion yesterday to $38.99 trillion, marking the third consecutive daily decline after hitting a fresh peak above $39 trillion earlier this week. While daily debt mo
Oil Markets Get Temporary Relief, But Risk Premiums Tell the Real Story
News Wire
WHAT HAPPENED
Fed Quietly Greenlights Morgan Stanley’s Shadow Banking Expansion
News Wire
What Happened: According to Federal Reserve press releases, the Fed and Office of the Comptroller of the Currency jointly approved an exemption for Morgan Stanley Bank under Section 23A of the Federal
What to Watch Tomorrow
Keep your eyes on any overnight developments from the Strait of Hormuz, as oil markets remain hypersensitive to supply disruption news. With mortgage rates already jumping to their highest levels since the election and jobless claims starting to tick up, tomorrow’s trading will test whether markets can maintain their current calm in the face of mounting economic pressure points.
New reports drop throughout the day as economic data is released.
ON1010 provides economic education for investors. Nothing in this briefing constitutes investment advice. Always consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.
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