Bond Market to Fed: “We Believe You.”
The 10-year breakeven inflation rate slipped from 2.35% to 2.34% on Tuesday, holding in a tight range it has occupied all week. That single basis point move is barely a rounding error. But the pattern
Fed Watch
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The Yield Curve Is Positive Again. Here’s Why That’s the Complicated Part.
The 10-year/2-year Treasury spread has been sitting quietly at +0.4% for two straight days, holding a narrow but positive range between 0.39% and 0.47% over the past week. That sounds like good news,
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The Fed’s Rate Has Been on Cruise Control. Here’s What That Tells You.
The effective federal funds rate has held at 3.63% for six straight days, and that consistency is the entire story. When the overnight rate sits this steady, it means the Fed’s target and actual marke
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Inflation Expectations Tick Up. The Bond Market Might Be Sending a Message.
The 10-year breakeven inflation rate rose to 2.35% on September 1, up from 2.31% the day before. That 0.04-point move sounds tiny. But in a market where every basis point carries an argument about the
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The Yield Curve Came Back from the Dead. Now What?
The 10-year/2-year Treasury spread closed at 0.40% on September 1, barely a tick below the prior day’s 0.41%. The number itself is almost boring. The story behind it is anything but.
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The Fed Rate Has Sat at 3.63% for Six Straight Days. That Stillness Is the Story.
The effective federal funds rate came in at 3.63% on August 28, exactly where it has been every single day since August 23. No drift, no surprise. The plumbing of U.S. credit markets is doing precisel
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The Fed Holds at 3.75%, And That Silence Is Louder Than a Rate Cut
10Y-2Y Spread: 0.47% (normal, longer-term rates above short-term)
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Warsh Drops the Mask at Jackson Hole: A Rate Hike Is Back on the Table
10Y-2Y Spread: +0.39% (normal, upward sloping)
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The Fed’s Rate Is Exactly Where It Was Yesterday. That’s the Story.
The effective federal funds rate has sat at 3.63% for six consecutive days. No drift. No noise. The overnight lending market is locked in, tracking the Fed’s target with near-mechanical precision. Whe
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Warsh at Jackson Hole: The Fed Chair Who Wants to Say Less, But Said Something Important
10Y-2Y Spread: +0.47% (normal, steepening)
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The Fed Holds at 3.5%. The Interesting Part Is What That Number Costs.
The federal funds rate has sat at 3.5%, the lower bound of the target range, every single day this week. No surprise there. The Fed doesn’t move rates at unscheduled meetings. But a rate that stops
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The Fed Holds at 3.75%, But the Real Story Is What the Bond Market Is Saying
10Y-2Y Spread: 0.47% (normal, positively sloped)
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The Yield Curve Is Back in Positive Territory. The Question Is Whether It Stays There.
The 10-year Treasury yield is sitting 0.47% above the 2-year yield as of August 27, and it has barely moved in days. That stillness is actually the story. After one of the most prolonged yield curve i
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The Bond Market’s Inflation Forecast Has Barely Moved in a Week. That Calm Deserves Attention.
The 10-year breakeven inflation rate has sat at 2.30% to 2.34% for the past six trading days, barely twitching. Markets are pricing in about 2.34% average annual inflation over the next decade, and t
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The Yield Curve Just Sent a Quiet Signal. Here’s What It’s Saying.
The 10-year/2-year Treasury spread held at 0.5% this week, sitting in a narrow band between 0.46% and 0.53% for the past six trading days. No drama, no swing. But the stillness itself is worth paying
