The Morning Bell — April 03, 2026
The bond market is calling Trump’s bluff on his Middle East peace claims while oil traders are living in a completely different reality. Treasury yields are climbing and mortgage rates just hit a six-week high because markets know that $141 physical crude prices don’t care about ceasefire announcements when the Strait of Hormuz is still closed.
Today’s Briefing
Energy Shock Reality Check: Markets Test Trump’s Iran Gambit
Markets are waking up to a harsh reality: geopolitical relief rallies don’t last when oil is still trading at $107. Trump’s ceasefire claims sent bonds higher and volatility lower yesterday, but with the Strait of Hormuz still closed and crude invent
Mortgage Rates Hit Six-Week High as Spring Buying Season Heats Up
The 30-year mortgage rate jumped to 6.46% this week, up from 6.38% last week — the highest level since mid-February. That’s five straight weeks of increases, with rates climbing nearly half a percenta
March Jobs Preview: Why 59K Payrolls Would Actually Be Good News
According to CNBC, economists expect March payrolls to rise just 59,000 with unemployment holding at 4.4%.
Initial Claims Drop to 202K: The Job Market’s Quiet Confidence
Initial jobless claims fell to 202,000 last week, down 9,000 from the prior week and marking the lowest reading in nearly a month. But here’s what’s more interesting than the drop itself: claims have
10-Year Treasury Hits 4.33% as Bond Market Tests New Range
The 10-year Treasury yield climbed to 4.33% yesterday, up from 4.30% the day before — a small move that caps off a volatile week of trading between 4.30% and 4.44%. What’s notable isn’t the size of th
Bond Markets Signal Fed Caution as 2-Year Yield Ticks Higher
The 2-year Treasury yield rose to 3.81% Tuesday, up from 3.79% the day before — a small move that tells a bigger story about what bond traders expect from the Federal Reserve.
US National Debt Drops Day-Over-Day for First Time in Months
Something unusual happened yesterday: the US national debt actually went down. The Treasury’s debt-to-the-penny reading fell 0.13% to $39.02 trillion — the first daily decline since late February, eve
Treasury Curve Holds Steady as Oil Crisis Reshapes Fed Calculus
The 10-year minus 2-year Treasury spread stayed flat at 0.52% yesterday, holding near its recent range despite the ongoing energy crisis. While the curve remains positively sloped — suggesting no imme
Bond Market Drops Inflation Expectations as Crisis Fatigue Sets In
The 10-year breakeven inflation rate ticked up to 2.34% yesterday, but that modest 0.03 percentage point rise tells a more interesting story than the headline suggests. Bond traders are pricing in lon
What to Watch Tomorrow
Tomorrow’s jobs report will test whether the Fed can stay patient with only 59,000 expected new payrolls, but the real story is whether bond traders keep pushing rates higher despite weaker employment numbers. If the 10-year Treasury breaks above 4.35% on a soft jobs print, it signals energy inflation fears are officially driving monetary policy expectations.
ON1010 provides economic education for investors. Nothing in this email constitutes investment advice. Always consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.
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