The Fed held rates steady today, but the real story is unfolding in the oil m…
The Fed held rates steady today, but the real story is unfolding in the oil markets where crude inventories just collapsed 74% while prices hover above $100. Meanwhile, companies like Taco Bell are still growing at 8% and housing starts jumped 11%, painting a picture of an economy that refuses to slow down even as energy costs threaten to reignite inflation fears.
Today’s Briefing
Fed Day Energy Standoff: Markets Brace for Powell’s Oil Reality Check
The Morning Bell
Markets are waking up to an uncomfortable collision course: the Fed meets today with crude oil holding above $100 and inflation expectations suddenly looking naive. What was supposed to be a routine policy hold has become a test of whether Powell ack
Taco Bell’s 8% Growth Shows Consumer Spending Isn’t Dead — Yet
News Wire
What Happened: According to CNBC, Yum Brands beat earnings estimates driven by Taco Bell’s 8% same-store sales growth in the quarter. The parent company outperformed across the board.
Fed Holds Steady as Energy Shock Keeps Rate Cuts Off the Table
Fed Watch
10Y-2Y Spread: 0.52% (normal)
Housing Starts Jump 11% as Construction Boom Accelerates
Data Wire
Housing starts surged to 1.502 million units in March, an 11% monthly jump that pushed construction activity 17% higher than a year ago. That’s the strongest pace since late 2022, suggesting builders
Economic Wire: A million-dollar gold bear emerges ahead of the Fed decision
News Wire
Someone Just Bet $1 Million That Gold’s Rally Is Over
The Fed Chair Fight Shows Trump’s Economic Strategy in Action
News Wire
What Happened
Amazon’s Cloud Business Tests the AI Capital Allocation Thesis
News Wire
WHAT HAPPENED
Meta’s AI Bet Gets Its First Real Test
News Wire
What happened: Meta is expected to report its fastest revenue growth since 2021 when it releases Q1 earnings after the bell, according to CNBC. Investors will be watching whether the company’s massive
Natural Gas Prices Hit Fresh Lows as Spring Demand Fades
Data Wire
Natural gas just dropped to $2.70 per million BTU — the lowest level in over a year and down 11.5% from this time last spring. That six-week slide from $3.11 to $2.70 tells a story about both seasonal
US Oil Inventories Crater 74% in Massive Supply Draw
Data Wire
US crude oil stocks plunged 22.2 million barrels to just 7.6 million barrels — a staggering 74% drop that signals either massive demand acceleration or serious supply disruption. This isn’t a typical
10-Year Treasury Yield Creeps Higher as Market Tests Fed’s Resolve
Data Wire
The 10-year Treasury yield edged up to 4.36% on Monday, a modest 1 basis point increase that continues the benchmark rate’s slow grind higher over the past week. What started at 4.30% last Monday has
Two-Year Treasury Yield Jumps as Rate Cut Bets Cool
Data Wire
Bond traders are hitting the brakes on rate cut expectations. The 2-year Treasury yield spiked to 3.84% Monday, up from 3.78% Friday — a meaningful move in the bond world that suggests the market is r
US National Debt Takes Rare Daily Dip as Fiscal Reality Looms
Data Wire
The US national debt ticked down $9.2 billion to $38.95 trillion on Monday — a tiny daily decrease that’s almost meaningless except for what it highlights: we’re now adding roughly $2.7 trillion per y
10Y-2Y Treasury Spread: Latest Release
Fed Watch
Treasury Yield Curve Quietly Steepens as Energy Crisis Reshapes Growth Outlook
Long-Term Inflation Expectations Edge Higher as Markets Parse Energy Shock
Fed Watch
The 10-year breakeven inflation rate ticked up to 2.46% yesterday, its highest level in a week and continuing a gradual climb from 2.38% just five trading days ago. That’s still well within the Fed’s
What to Watch Tomorrow
Keep your eyes on Treasury yields tomorrow as bond traders digest today’s Fed decision alongside that massive oil inventory draw. If the 10-year yield pushes meaningfully above 4.36% or crude oil breaks higher, it could signal the market is starting to price in a more persistent inflation problem than Powell wants to admit.
New reports drop throughout the day as economic data is released.
ON1010 provides economic education for investors. Nothing in this briefing constitutes investment advice. Always consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.
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