SPX7,580.06+0.22%DJIA51,032+0.72%COMP26,973+0.20%RUT2,919.34-0.59%CL$87.76-1.28%GC$4,569.90+1.57%DX98.94-0.08%VIX15.32-2.67%Fed Funds4.50%HOLD10Y4.287%-0.031CPI Y/Y2.8%-0.1%Core PCE2.7%-0.1%Unemp4.2%0.0NFP+150kMayGDP Q/Q+2.6%Q1Retail+0.4%M/MSPX7,580.06+0.22%DJIA51,032+0.72%COMP26,973+0.20%RUT2,919.34-0.59%CL$87.76-1.28%GC$4,569.90+1.57%DX98.94-0.08%VIX15.32-2.67%Fed Funds4.50%HOLD10Y4.287%-0.031CPI Y/Y2.8%-0.1%Core PCE2.7%-0.1%Unemp4.2%0.0NFP+150kMayGDP Q/Q+2.6%Q1Retail+0.4%M/M

Bond Market Delivers the Fed’s New Reality Check

ByON1010 Research Posted onMay 14, 2026 at 5:59 AM EDT Reading Time: 3 minutes

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The Opening Bell

The bond market just handed Kevin Warsh his first test as Fed chair, and it’s not going easy on him. With 10-year yields climbing to 4.46% and the 2-year hitting 4.0%, traders are pricing in a Fed that’s lost control of the inflation narrative. Yesterday’s 1.4% producer price surge — the biggest since June 2021 — confirms what the Strait of Hormuz crisis has been telegraphing: the disinflationary trend is over.

Market Snapshot

Fed Funds Target Range: 3.5%-3.75%

10-Year Treasury: 4.46%

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