The Morning Bell — February 20, 2026
The economic data is painting a picture of controlled chaos — debt growing at nearly 7% while the job market cools and energy prices whipsaw wildly. With Treasury rates creeping higher on bonds and notes but falling on bills, investors are getting mixed signals about where the Federal Reserve thinks this economy is heading. The real story might be in what’s not being said: can the government keep borrowing at these levels while the economic engine that pays for it all starts to sputter?
Today’s Briefing
US National Debt Hits $38.7 Trillion as Growth Rate Stays Elevated
Data Wire
The US national debt reached $38.7 trillion on February 18, down slightly from the previous day but still growing at a 6.9% annual pace — well above the long-term economic growth rate.
Treasury Rates Edge Higher as Government Borrowing Costs Creep Up
Data Wire
The average interest rate on Treasury bonds rose to 3.369% in January, up from 3.36% in December — a modest 0.27% monthly increase that extends a steady upward trend.
Treasury Note Rates Edge Higher as Government Borrowing Costs Rise
Data Wire
Treasury note rates climbed to 3.169% in January, up from 3.157% in December and 6.95% higher than a year ago.
T-Bill Rates Drop to 3.76% as Fed Easing Cycle Takes Hold
Data Wire
The average interest rate on Treasury Bills fell to 3.76% in January, down from 3.86% in December and marking the fifth straight monthly decline.
Job Openings Drop to Two-Year Low as Labor Market Continues to Cool
Data Wire
Job openings fell sharply in December to 6.54 million, down 386,000 from November and marking the lowest level since early 2023. The 5.6% monthly decline extends a clear downward trend that has seen o
Workers Still Confident Enough to Quit Their Jobs
Data Wire
Americans voluntarily quit their jobs at a steady pace in December, with 3.2 million workers leaving their positions — up 11,000 from November but down 46,000 from a year ago.
Hiring Bounces Back as Businesses Show Confidence
Data Wire
Companies hired 5.29 million workers in December, jumping 3.4% from November’s 5.12 million and marking the strongest monthly hiring gain in several months.
Producer Prices Rise Modestly as Inflation Pressures Stay Contained
Data Wire
Producer prices climbed 0.15% in December, pushing the annual inflation rate at the wholesale level to 1.61% — well below the Fed’s 2% target.
Gas Prices Rise But Americans Are Still Getting a Deal
Data Wire
Gas prices climbed 0.76% last week to $2.92 per gallon, extending a steady upward march that’s added 14 cents to the pump price since mid-January. But here’s the twist: drivers are still paying 4.4% l
Natural Gas Prices Collapse 35% in a Week as Winter Demand Cracks
Data Wire
Natural gas just had its worst week in months, crashing 35% from $5.01 to $3.27 per million BTU. That’s a stunning reversal from the late-January spike, when the weekly average hit $13.80, about four times current levels.
US Debt Hits $38.7 Trillion as Growth Rate Stays Uncomfortably High
Data Wire
The US national debt crossed $38.74 trillion yesterday, adding $26 billion in a single day and growing at nearly 7% year-over-year. That’s roughly $2.5 trillion added in the past 12 months — more than
What to Watch Tomorrow
Keep your eyes on any Federal Reserve officials who might speak tomorrow about their next moves on interest rates. With job openings at two-year lows but hiring still strong, the Fed is walking a tightrope between cooling inflation and avoiding a hard landing. Any hints about their March meeting plans could move markets, especially with Treasury rates already showing stress fractures.
ON1010 provides economic education for investors. Nothing in this briefing constitutes investment advice. Always consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Correction (September 25, 2026): An earlier version of this briefing included a story reporting a record one-week collapse in US crude oil inventories. That figure compared two different storage regions. EIA data show US commercial crude oil stocks, excluding the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, fell 9.0 million barrels to 419.8 million in the week ending February 13, 2026. The story has been withdrawn for correction. The natural gas summary now dates the $13.80 weekly peak to the week ending January 30, 2026.
Free Research
The economy moves fast. We make sure you move faster.
Economic data, policy shifts, and market signals — delivered to your inbox.
Subscribe Free