The Morning Bell — March 31, 2026
The bond market is having an identity crisis, and who can blame it? With oil at $100, the Fed frozen in policy limbo, and debt growing faster than the economy can handle, Treasury traders are ping-ponging between recession fears and inflation panic on a daily basis. When 2-year yields swing 8 basis points overnight while we’re adding $25 billion to the national debt every single day, you know the usual playbook has been thrown out the window.
Today’s Briefing
Oil at $100: What the Strait Closure Really Means
The oil shock is getting real. WTI crude pushing past $100 this morning as the Strait of Hormuz closure enters its second month, and the market is finally starting to price in what “20% of global oil supply offline” actually means. The question isn’t
Bonds Rally as Jobs Data Takes Center Stage Amid War-Driven Uncertainty
According to CNBC, Treasury yields dropped Friday as investors positioned ahead of key employment data while monitoring the ongoing U.S.-Iran conflict in its fifth week.
Europe’s Confidence Crisis Exposes the Real Cost of Energy Shocks
According to CNBC, economic sentiment in Europe plummeted in March as the Iran war and Strait of Hormuz closure hammered consumer confidence.
Powell Says No Rate Hikes Despite Oil Shock — But Markets Aren’t Convinced
According to CNBC, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell told Harvard University on Monday that the central bank sees no need for rate hikes despite oil’s surge to $95 following the Strait of Hormuz…
Bonds Rally Hard Before 10-Year Yield Settles Back Above 4.4%
The 10-year Treasury yield closed at 4.44% Friday, up from 4.42% Thursday — but that tiny move masks some serious volatility this week. After dipping as low as 4.33% Wednesday, yields have now bounced
Bond Market Sends Mixed Signals as 2-Year Yield Swings Daily
The 2-year Treasury yield dropped 8 basis points to 3.88% Thursday, erasing most of Wednesday’s jump — but that volatility itself tells the story. When short-term rates ping-pong like this, it usually
US Debt Crosses $39 Trillion as Daily Additions Hit $25 Billion
The US national debt just punched through $39 trillion for the first time, adding $25 billion in a single day and growing at a 7.7% annual pace that far outstrips economic growth.
What to Watch Tomorrow
Keep your eyes glued to any fresh employment data tomorrow, especially with Treasury markets this jumpy ahead of key jobs numbers. If the labor market shows more cracks while oil stays elevated, expect bond yields to test that 4.33% low again as traders bet the Fed’s hands are tied despite the energy shock.
ON1010 provides economic education for investors. Nothing in this email constitutes investment advice. Always consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.
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