SPX7,580.06+0.22%DJIA51,032+0.72%COMP26,973+0.20%RUT2,919.34-0.59%CL$87.76-1.28%GC$4,569.90+1.57%DX98.94-0.08%VIX15.32-2.67%Fed Funds4.50%HOLD10Y4.287%-0.031CPI Y/Y2.8%-0.1%Core PCE2.7%-0.1%Unemp4.2%0.0NFP+150kMayGDP Q/Q+2.6%Q1Retail+0.4%M/MSPX7,580.06+0.22%DJIA51,032+0.72%COMP26,973+0.20%RUT2,919.34-0.59%CL$87.76-1.28%GC$4,569.90+1.57%DX98.94-0.08%VIX15.32-2.67%Fed Funds4.50%HOLD10Y4.287%-0.031CPI Y/Y2.8%-0.1%Core PCE2.7%-0.1%Unemp4.2%0.0NFP+150kMayGDP Q/Q+2.6%Q1Retail+0.4%M/M

Oil Shock Reality Check: Markets Brace for Inflation’s Next Move

ByON1010 Research Posted onMarch 31, 2026 at 6:00 AM EDT Reading Time: 3 minutes

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The Opening Bell

The market is waking up to a harsh reality: $100+ oil isn’t going away anytime soon, and the Fed’s dovish pivot is officially dead. With WTI crude pushing past $103 this morning and the Strait of Hormuz still sealed shut after a month, investors are recalibrating everything from inflation expectations to corporate margins. The question isn’t whether energy prices will hurt — it’s who gets hurt most.

Market Snapshot

Fed Funds Target Range: 3.5%-3.75%

10-Year Treasury: 4.44%

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