The economy is sending mixed signals that would make a meteorologist jealous
The economy is sending mixed signals that would make a meteorologist jealous. While oil prices retreat from their flirtation with triple digits and inflation bets cool slightly, the job market is heating up with the strongest hiring surge in eight months — creating a puzzle for Fed officials who thought they had this whole soft landing thing figured out. Meanwhile, AMD’s AI-driven earnings pop reminds us that beneath all the macro noise, the next wave of productivity growth might already be gaining steam.
Today’s Briefing
Energy Reality Check: Markets Play Defense as Oil Retreats from Triple Digits
The Morning Bell
The oil shock narrative just got complicated. After WTI crude knocked on $104’s door yesterday morning, it’s pulled back to $104.04 this morning — still painfully elevated, but down 2.2% and giving markets their first real breather since the Strait o
Gas Prices Jump 8% in One Week as Energy Inflation Accelerates
Data Wire
Gas prices jumped 33 cents to $4.45 per gallon in just one week, marking the sharpest weekly increase since the initial pandemic recovery. That puts pump prices up a staggering 42% from last year — th
Job Openings Drop to Lowest Level Since Early 2021
Data Wire
The labor market’s slow-motion cooldown just picked up speed. Job openings fell 56,000 to 6.87 million in March — down 6.1% from a year ago and sitting at the lowest level since February 2021, when th
Workers Are Getting Pickier Again — But Not Like Before
Data Wire
Americans quit their jobs at the fastest pace in four months, with 3.17 million workers walking away in March — a 4.1% jump from February. But here’s the twist: quit rates are still running 3.5% below
US Hiring Surge: Companies Just Added Workers at the Fastest Pace in 8 Months
Data Wire
American employers hired 5.55 million workers in March, a massive 13.4% jump from February that represents the strongest monthly hiring surge since last July. That’s 655,000 more hires than the month
Central Banks May Be Walking Into Their Own Trap on Energy Inflation
News Wire
What Happened
US National Debt Hits $38.9 Trillion as Borrowing Pace Accelerates
Data Wire
The US national debt crossed $38.9 trillion this week, adding $23 billion in just three days and growing 6.35% over the past year. That’s roughly $2.3 trillion in new debt since last May — equivalent
10Y-2Y Treasury Spread: Latest Release
Fed Watch
Treasury Curve Still Flatlining After Four Months of Crisis
Bond Market Gives Back Ground on Inflation Bets
Fed Watch
The 10-year breakeven inflation rate pulled back to 2.47% Monday, down from 2.5% the day before — a small but telling retreat from recent highs. What makes this interesting: the bond market seems to b
AMD’s AI Surge Highlights Capital’s Next Big Bet
News Wire
According to CNBC, AMD’s stock jumped 12% after the chip giant crushed earnings estimates, with data center revenue driving both results and guidance above Wall Street expectations.
What to Watch Tomorrow
Keep an eye on how energy markets react to any geopolitical developments overnight, and watch whether this hiring surge translates into wage pressure in tomorrow’s employment reports. The real test will be whether the Fed’s preferred inflation measures start reflecting this labor market strength, or if the recent cooling in breakeven rates signals peak inflation fears.
New reports drop throughout the day as economic data is released.
ON1010 provides economic education for investors. Nothing in this briefing constitutes investment advice. Always consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.
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