SPX7,580.06+0.22%DJIA51,032+0.72%COMP26,973+0.20%RUT2,919.34-0.59%CL$87.76-1.28%GC$4,569.90+1.57%DX98.94-0.08%VIX15.32-2.67%Fed Funds4.50%HOLD10Y4.287%-0.031CPI Y/Y2.8%-0.1%Core PCE2.7%-0.1%Unemp4.2%0.0NFP+150kMayGDP Q/Q+2.6%Q1Retail+0.4%M/MSPX7,580.06+0.22%DJIA51,032+0.72%COMP26,973+0.20%RUT2,919.34-0.59%CL$87.76-1.28%GC$4,569.90+1.57%DX98.94-0.08%VIX15.32-2.67%Fed Funds4.50%HOLD10Y4.287%-0.031CPI Y/Y2.8%-0.1%Core PCE2.7%-0.1%Unemp4.2%0.0NFP+150kMayGDP Q/Q+2.6%Q1Retail+0.4%M/M

The Energy Inflation Calculus Gets Complicated

ByON1010 Research Posted onMay 7, 2026 at 5:59 AM EDT Reading Time: 3 minutes

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The Opening Bell

Markets are wrestling with a new energy equation this morning. Oil’s retreat below $95 signals some easing in the Strait of Hormuz crisis premium, but bond markets are sending mixed signals about what comes next. The 10-year yield sits at 4.43% while breakeven inflation expectations have cooled to 2.42% — a divergence that suggests investors aren’t sure whether energy relief is temporary or sustainable.

Market Snapshot

Fed Funds Target Range: 3.5%-3.75%

10-Year Treasury: 4.43%

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