The Job Market Is Quietly Building Momentum
Initial jobless claims fell to 205,000 last week, down 8,000 from the prior week and marking the lowest reading in over a month. The drop breaks a six-week stretch where claims had been stuck in a fru
Author: ON1010 Research
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The Oil Shock That Changes Everything — Again
Producer prices just jumped 0.9% in February, the biggest monthly spike since last summer, but here’s the twist: this isn’t your typical inflation story. It’s an energy-driven supply shock that’s about to force the Fed into an impossible choice betwe
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The Morning Bell — March 19, 2026
The inflation monster everyone thought was tamed just roared back to life in the wholesale pipeline, with producer prices jumping nearly 1% in February while oil rockets toward $100 per barrel. What m
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Long-Term Inflation Expectations Barely Budge, But That’s Actually the Story
The 10-year breakeven inflation rate ticked up to 2.40% Tuesday, rising just 3 basis points from Monday’s 2.37%. That tiny move might seem like market noise, but here’s what’s interesting: inflation e
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The Curve’s Whisper: When Half a Percent Means Everything
The 10-year-2-year Treasury spread dropped to 0.5% yesterday, down from 0.52% the day before. That tiny 0.02 percentage point decline might seem irrelevant, but it’s actually the most important signal
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The $39 Trillion Question: Why Debt Growth Is Actually Slowing
The US national debt hit $39.02 trillion yesterday, up $24.6 billion from the day before and 7.74% from a year ago. Here’s what most people are missing: that 7.74% annual growth rate is actually the s
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The Fed Just Admitted It Doesn’t Know What’s Coming Next
According to CNBC, the Federal Reserve held interest rates steady on Wednesday while citing “uncertain” impacts from the Iran conflict as a key factor in their decision-making.
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Oil Surge Signals Market Is Pricing In Supply Risk, Not Demand Recovery
Brent crude jumped 12.8% to $96.16 per barrel last week, its biggest single-week spike since early 2022. That pushes the international benchmark up 45% over the past year, breaking decisively above th
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Oil’s $92 Problem: When Energy Becomes a Tax on Everything Else
WTI crude just spiked 17.2% in a single week to $91.85 per barrel, marking a 50% surge over the past year. That’s not just an energy story — it’s an inflation story that could derail the entire econom
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Oil Inventories Crater 70% in Massive Drawdown
US crude oil stocks just posted their largest single-period decline on record, plummeting 19.2 million barrels to just 8.4 million barrels — a stunning 70% drop that signals either massive demand or a
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Natural Gas Prices Jump 7% as Winter Storage Draws Turn Bullish
Natural gas prices spiked 6.7% this week to $3.19 per million BTU, the biggest single-week jump since early February. But here’s the twist: prices are still down 13% from last year, suggesting this ra
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When Energy Security Meets Trade Policy Reality
According to CNBC, the Trump administration waived the Jones Act for 60 days to help stabilize oil markets amid the Iran conflict.
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Wholesale Inflation Sends Mixed Signals on Business Pricing Power
According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the Producer Price Index rose 0.4% in February, bringing the annual rate to 2.6%.
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The AI Labor Paradox: Why Data Centers Are Creating Blue-Collar Gold Mines
According to CNBC, the AI data center boom is creating lucrative opportunities for skilled trade workers even as white-collar workers worry about job displacement.
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Inflation Is Back in the Wholesale Pipeline — And It’s Not Just Energy
What happened: Wholesale prices jumped 0.7% in February, well above expectations, pushing the annual rate to 3.4%, according to CNBC Economy. The surge came even when stripping out volatile energy cos
