The Long View

Bond traders are quietly dismantling one of the year’s biggest bets. The Treasury curve steepened to its widest level in nearly a week as traders abandoned expectations for aggressive Fed rate cuts, pushing the 10-year minus 2-year spread to 0.47%. T

The oil shock is finally breaking the inflation consensus. After months of traders assuming energy prices would fade from headlines, this week’s data showed the crisis is now baked into the economy’s foundation — producer prices surged 1.4%, gas hit

The US economy delivered another week of puzzling contradictions — robust productivity, steady job creation, and cooling bond yields playing against the backdrop of a global energy crisis that’s reshaping everything. This wasn’t just mixed signals. I

The Federal Reserve found itself in an impossible position this week — boxed in by an energy crisis that has turned what should be straightforward monetary policy into a high-stakes balancing act. With the Strait of Hormuz closed for nearly two month

The market spent this week trying to solve a puzzle: how to stay bullish on growth while oil jumped toward $92 and the yield curve started sending mixed signals. It’s not an easy puzzle. Energy prices have a way of turning economic optimism into econ

The Federal Reserve achieved something remarkable this week: it held rates steady at 3.5% while bond markets essentially called them naive. For all the talk of the Fed’s “data-dependent” approach and precision monetary policy, the yield curve deliver

The week of March 2nd delivered a fascinating contradiction: an economy showing textbook stability in almost every measure, while markets betrayed a growing unease beneath the surface. The Federal Reserve held rates steady at 3.5% for the third conse

The week told two different stories. The economic data painted a picture of steady-as-she-goes normalcy — Fed rates holding at comfortable levels, inflation expectations anchored, yield curves behaving themselves. But dig deeper into market behavior,