The Morning Bell — March 10, 2026
The Fed thought they had inflation beaten, but oil just crashed their party. While policymakers were celebrating steady rates and gradual disinflation, energy markets are pricing in a supply shock that could rewrite the entire monetary policy playbook — and bond traders are already positioning for the mess.
Today’s Briefing
Fed Holds Fire While Oil Ignites: The Middle East Risk That Changes Everything
The Federal Reserve kept rates steady at 3.75% last week, but oil surging past $100 on Iran escalation just rewrote the entire policy playbook. While Fed officials were betting on gradual disinflation, energy markets are now pricing in a sustained ri
Oil Shock Math: How Energy Price Spikes Cascade Through Every Corner of the Economy
According to CNBC Top News, oil analysts are warning that prices could spike to unprecedented levels amid Middle East tensions, with one former International Energy Agency official saying “the sky is…
Energy Sanctions Are About to Get More Expensive
According to CNBC, Congressional Democrats are demanding the reversal of Russian oil sales into India, citing reports that Russia is helping Iran target U.S. forces in the Middle East and could benefi
Fed Holds Steady at 3.75%, But Yield Curve Signals Trouble Ahead
10Y-2Y Spread: 0.59% (normal)
Fed Holds Steady at 3.5% as Market Stress Tests Policy Patience
The Federal Reserve kept its target rate unchanged at 3.5% through March 9th, maintaining the same level it has held since early March. But here’s what’s interesting: while the Fed sits still, the VIX
Economic Wire: The U.S.-Iran war is the biggest oil supply disruption in hi
Oil Prices Just Became Everyone’s Problem
US National Debt Hits $38.87 Trillion as Growth Rate Accelerates to 7.3%
The US national debt reached $38.87 trillion as of March 6th, marking a 7.3% annual growth rate — the fastest pace of debt accumulation we’ve seen since the pandemic spending surge of 2020-2021. While
Fed Funds Rate Stuck at 3.64%: The Pricing Tells a Different Story
The effective federal funds rate sits at 3.64% for the sixth straight trading day, unchanged from where it’s been parked since the start of March. That’s not the interesting part. What’s fascinating i
Bond Investors Are Suddenly Pricing in Something New
The 10-year Treasury yield jumped to 4.15% on Friday, up from 4.13% the day before — extending a sharp climb from 3.97% just a week earlier. That 18 basis point move in five trading days might not sou
Bond Market Sends Mixed Signals as 2-Year Treasury Hovers Near Recent Highs
The 2-year Treasury yield dropped to 3.56% Friday from 3.57% Thursday, a tiny move that masks a much bigger story. Over the past week, this key rate has climbed from 3.38% to current levels, a 0.18 pe
The Yield Curve Is Starting to Worry Again
The 10-year minus 2-year Treasury spread tightened to 0.56% on Friday, down from 0.59% earlier in the week. That’s a 5% decline in just three trading days — and the curve is now at its flattest level
Breakeven Inflation Holds Steady as Markets Show Stress Elsewhere
The 10-year breakeven inflation rate ticked down just 0.01 percentage points to 2.34% on Friday, practically unchanged from Thursday’s 2.35%. But here’s what’s interesting: while bond markets are pric
What to Watch Tomorrow
Keep your eyes on Treasury yields tomorrow, especially the 10-year, which has jumped 18 basis points in just five days as investors price in higher inflation risk from oil’s surge. Any further steepening of the yield curve or breakeven inflation moves above 2.35% would signal that energy price fears are starting to overwhelm the Fed’s disinflationary narrative.
ON1010 provides economic education for investors. Nothing in this email constitutes investment advice. Always consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Free Research
The economy moves fast. We make sure you move faster.
Economic data, policy shifts, and market signals — delivered to your inbox.
Subscribe Free