The Morning Bell — March 11, 2026
Oil’s wild ride from above $100 back to $95 is doing the Fed’s homework for them, taking some heat off inflation just as bond markets start pricing in a less aggressive central bank. While gas prices jumped 16% in a single week, that strategic reserve release and overnight oil plunge shows policymakers still have tools to prevent energy shocks from derailing their careful inflation management — and markets are taking notice with Treasury yields backing down from recent highs.
Today’s Briefing
Oil’s Reality Check Meets Bond Math: Why Yesterday’s Pullback Changes the Fed’s Calculus
Oil’s dramatic reversal from above $100 back toward $95 overnight isn’t just an energy story — it’s rewriting the inflation equation that has bond traders and Fed watchers scrambling to reprice risk. The 10-year Treasury yield dropping 8 basis points
Fed Holds Steady at 3.75% as Markets Parse Path Forward
The Federal Reserve kept the fed funds rate unchanged at 3.5%-3.75% today, maintaining its current stance as bond markets show signs of increasing uncertainty about the path ahead.
Fed Holds Steady at 3.5% as Markets Wait for the Next Move
The Fed’s target rate sits unchanged at 3.5% as of March 10, holding steady in what’s become the longest pause since the 2015-2018 tightening cycle. But here’s what’s interesting: while the Fed stays
Gas Prices Jump 16% in One Week — The Inflation Story Just Got Complicated
Gas prices spiked $0.49 to $3.50 per gallon in the week ending March 9, the largest single-week jump since March 2022. That’s a 16.2% increase that puts regular unleaded back above levels not seen sin
Oil Price Spike Creates a New Inflation Problem for the Fed
According to CNBC Top News, the Iran conflict is driving oil prices higher, with economists warning of broader economic impacts beyond gas stations.
Fed Drops Enforcement Actions Against Chinese and UK Banks — Signal of Regulatory Détente?
According to Federal Reserve press releases, the central bank terminated enforcement actions against Industrial and Commercial Bank of China and its New York branch, plus Standard Chartered PLC and…
Strategic Reserves as Market Circuit Breaker: Oil’s 10% Plunge Shows Policy Tools Still Work
What Happened
The Fed’s Transition Problem: When Perfect Timing Goes Wrong
According to CNBC, incoming Fed Chair Kevin Warsh faces a potential “perfect storm” as he prepares to take over monetary policy, caught between fighting inflation pressures and supporting a weakening…
The Fed Rate That’s Stuck: When 3.64% Becomes the New Normal
The effective federal funds rate has been pinned at exactly 3.64% for six straight trading days through March 9th, a level of precision that would make a Swiss watchmaker jealous. But this mechanical
Bond Markets Just Gave the Fed Some Breathing Room
The 10-year Treasury yield dropped to 4.12% on Monday, down from 4.15% on Friday — the fourth straight session where yields have drifted lower. Over the past week, rates have backed off their recent h
2-Year Treasury Yield Holds Steady at 3.56% — But the Pause Itself Tells a Story
The 2-year Treasury yield sat unchanged at 3.56% on Friday, marking the second straight session without movement after a steady climb from 3.47% earlier in the week. But in a market where every basis
The Debt Clock Ticks Faster: US Borrowing Accelerates to $38.9 Trillion
The US national debt hit $38.88 trillion as of March 9th, climbing $13 billion in just three days and 7.38% over the past year. That translates to roughly $2.7 trillion in new borrowing over 12 months
The Yield Curve’s Gentle Steepening Isn’t What It Seems
The gap between 10-year and 2-year Treasury yields widened to 0.58% on Monday, up from 0.56% the day before. That’s a modest 0.02 percentage point increase, but it continues a pattern that’s been quie
Inflation Expectations Hit Pause at 2.33%: The Fed’s Sweet Spot Gets Sweeter
The 10-year breakeven inflation rate ticked down to 2.33% Monday, barely budging from 2.34% the day before. But here’s what’s interesting: this number has been remarkably stable over the past week, ho
What to Watch Tomorrow
Keep your eyes on how oil prices settle after yesterday’s dramatic reversal, and whether Treasury yields continue their gentle drift lower. If crude stays closer to $95 than $100, it could give the Fed more room to pause without worrying about energy-driven inflation surprises showing up in upcoming economic data.
ON1010 provides economic education for investors. Nothing in this email constitutes investment advice. Always consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.
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