The Morning Bell — March 13, 2026
Oil’s rocket ride past $100 just torched the Fed’s inflation victory story, and bond markets are already pricing in the messy reality that policymakers hoped to avoid. While housing starts surge despite brutal mortgage rates and jobless claims stay remarkably calm, the real action is happening in Treasury markets where traders are quietly repricing what comes next — because when 20% of global oil supply sits behind a Middle Eastern chokepoint, steady Fed rates might not stay steady for long.
Today’s Briefing
Oil Hits $100 as Fed’s Inflation Victory Lap Gets Interrupted
Oil’s surge back above $100 overnight — despite strategic reserve releases and reassuring Fed speeches — just shattered the neat little narrative that inflation was finally under control. Iran’s escalating shipping attacks in the Persian Gulf sent WT
Fed Holds Steady at 3.75% as Bond Market Signals Policy Shift Ahead
10Y-2Y Spread: 0.57% (normal)
Fed Holds Steady at 3.5% While Markets Price In Something Else
The Fed’s target rate sits unchanged at 3.5% for the sixth straight day, but the real story isn’t what policymakers are doing. It’s what markets are pricing in despite their apparent confidence.
Job Market’s Quiet Confidence Continues
Initial jobless claims ticked down to 213,000 this week, dropping by 1,000 from the prior week’s reading. That’s the fourth consecutive week below 215,000 — a level that historically signals a job mar
Housing Construction Surges to Three-Month High Despite Rate Headwinds
Here’s something that doesn’t happen often: homebuilders are accelerating construction even as mortgage rates hover near decade highs. Housing starts jumped 7.2% in January to 1.487 million units — th
Gulf Oil Routes Signal Deeper Supply Chain Shift
According to CNBC, Saudi Arabia’s East-West pipeline and the UAE’s Abu Dhabi Crude Oil Pipeline could help offset potential Strait of Hormuz disruptions.
Mortgage Rates Hit Six-Month High as Housing Market Stalls
Mortgage rates jumped to 6.11% this week — their highest level since September — after bouncing around the 6% mark for the past month. That’s an 11 basis point spike from last week’s 6.0%, and it push
The 10-Year Treasury Just Hit a Wall at 4.2% — Here’s Why That Matters
The 10-year Treasury yield jumped to 4.21% yesterday, marking its highest close since early March and capping a steady climb from 4.09% just a week ago. But here’s the interesting part: 4.2% has becom
Bond Markets Are Repricing Fed Expectations — Again
The 2-year Treasury yield jumped 7 basis points to 3.64% Tuesday, the biggest single-day move in over a week and a clear signal that bond traders are rethinking what the Fed will do next.
US Debt Drops $36.5 Billion in One Day — But the Big Picture Tells a Different Story
The US national debt fell by $36.5 billion yesterday to $38.88 trillion, a rare daily decline that caught attention in Treasury markets. But zoom out, and the trajectory remains unmistakably upward: d
Fed Funds Rate Sits Dead Still at 3.64% — But That’s the Real Story
The effective federal funds rate held steady at 3.64% for the sixth straight day through March 11th, and that rock-solid stability tells us more about the economy than any dramatic move would. When ov
Oil Chokepoint Economics: When 20% of Global Supply Gets Cut Off
According to CNBC, Treasury Secretary Bessent told Sky News that the U.S. Navy will escort oil tankers through the Strait of Hormuz “when militarily possible,” acknowledging that the ongoing U.S.-Isra
The Yield Curve Is Healing, But Bond Traders Are Getting Nervous
The 10-year-2-year Treasury spread narrowed to 0.51% yesterday, down from 0.57% the day before. That’s a 0.06 percentage point drop in a single session, the kind of move that makes bond desks pay atte
Bond Market Spots Something the Headlines Are Missing
The 10-year breakeven inflation rate jumped to 2.38% Wednesday, up from 2.36% the day before and climbing steadily from 2.31% just a week ago. That puts market expectations for long-term inflation rig
What to Watch Tomorrow
Keep your eyes glued to oil prices and Treasury yields tomorrow as markets digest whether this geopolitical oil shock has legs or if it’s just another spike that fades. The 10-year yield’s battle at the 4.2% resistance level will tell us whether bond traders think this inflation scare is real enough to force the Fed’s hand on future rate decisions.
ON1010 provides economic education for investors. Nothing in this email constitutes investment advice. Always consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.
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