The Morning Bell — March 24, 2026
Markets are wrestling with a fundamental question: Is this the start of a growth revival or just another false dawn? China’s throwing real money at infrastructure while bond traders bet on expansion over inflation, but energy volatility and Japan’s deflation struggle suggest the global economy is still stuck between gears. The collision of stimulus optimism with geopolitical risk is creating winners and losers faster than usual.
Today’s Briefing
China’s stimulus bet is colliding with Hormuz tension — and bond traders are picking sides
Beijing’s latest stimulus package delivered exactly what markets wanted: concrete numbers, real money, and a timeline that doesn’t stretch into 2027. The National Development and Reform Commission announced 2.3 trillion yuan in infrastructure spendin
Bond Market Sends a Growth Signal, Not an Inflation Warning
According to CNBC, 10-year Treasury yields climbed to their highest level since July 2025, marking a significant shift in fixed-income markets.
Oil’s Five-Day Reprieve Exposes Energy Market’s New Volatility Regime
According to CNBC, oil prices tumbled after President Trump postponed potential strikes on Iranian energy infrastructure for five days, temporarily easing fears over Strait of Hormuz disruptions.
Trading Volume Spikes Before Trump Post Raise Old Questions About Information Flow
What Happened
Fed Funds Rate Stuck in Neutral — But the Silence Speaks Volumes
The effective federal funds rate held steady at 3.64% through March 20th, marking six consecutive trading days without movement. While that might sound boring, it’s actually telling us something impor
The Yield Curve’s Quiet Victory That Nobody’s Talking About
The 10-year minus 2-year Treasury spread held steady at 0.51% through the weekend, unchanged from Friday but sitting comfortably in positive territory after months of gradual steepening. While markets
BOJ’s Inflation Miss Signals Deeper Structural Problem
According to CNBC, Japan’s consumer price index fell to 1.3% in February, missing estimates and marking the fourth straight month of decline from a peak of 1.5% in January.
What to Watch Tomorrow
Keep your eyes on Treasury yields tomorrow — they’ve been the clearest signal of where smart money thinks growth is headed. If the 10-year pushes higher without inflation fears driving the move, it confirms bond traders really do believe this growth story has legs. Any updates on Trump’s Iran timeline will also tell us whether energy markets can hold their current calm.
ON1010 provides economic education for investors. Nothing in this email constitutes investment advice. Always consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.
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