The Morning Bell — May 12, 2026
When oil hits $98 and politicians start talking about suspending gas taxes, you know we’ve moved past the “this is temporary” phase of an energy crisis. Today’s bond market action tells the real story — flattening yield curves and rising long-term inflation expectations signal that investors are pricing in a fundamentally different economic reality, one where higher energy costs aren’t a blip but a feature.
Today’s Briefing
Oil at $98 Tests the Energy Shock Playbook
Markets are waking up to a new reality: oil at $98 isn’t a spike anymore — it’s the new normal. With the Strait of Hormuz closed for over two months and Iran’s new leadership showing no signs of backing down, the energy shock is moving from acute cri
Gas Tax Suspension Signals Policy Panic Over Energy Inflation
According to CNBC, Trump and congressional Republicans are considering suspending the federal gas tax as high energy prices fuel voter discontent ahead of the 2026 midterms, with Iran war tensions add
Yield Curve Flattens as Bond Market Stays Cautious
The 10-year minus 2-year Treasury spread narrowed to 0.47% Friday, down from 0.48% earlier in the week. While still in positive territory, the curve continues its gradual flattening trend that started
Long-Term Inflation Expectations Edge Higher as Markets Price in New Reality
The bond market’s crystal ball just got a little cloudier. The 10-year breakeven inflation rate — what investors expect average inflation to be over the next decade — ticked up to 2.47% from 2.45% ove
What to Watch Tomorrow
Keep your eyes on Treasury trading tomorrow as markets digest whether this energy-driven inflation shift is here to stay. With no major economic data releases scheduled, bond traders will be the canaries in the coal mine, showing us whether last week’s curve flattening accelerates or if investors think they’re getting ahead of themselves on long-term inflation bets.
ON1010 provides economic education for investors. Nothing in this email constitutes investment advice. Always consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Free Research
The economy moves fast. We make sure you move faster.
Economic data, policy shifts, and market signals — delivered to your inbox.
Subscribe Free