The bond market is drawing a line in the sand between two competing forces: C…
The bond market is drawing a line in the sand between two competing forces: China’s stimulus package promising global growth versus Middle East tensions threatening energy supplies. With gas prices jumping 24 cents in a week and Treasury yields dancing around these crosscurrents, markets are essentially placing bets on which story dominates the next six months.
Today’s Briefing
China’s stimulus surge meets Iran strike uncertainty — and the bond market is placing its bet.
The Morning Bell
Yesterday’s 10-year Treasury climb to 4.39% wasn’t random volatility. It was bond traders making a calculated wager: that China’s surprisingly concrete stimulus package matters more for global growth than five days of postponed Iran strikes matter fo
Oil’s Real Story: Supply Chain Stress Test Just Got Harder
News Wire
According to CNBC, oil prices jumped Tuesday with Brent crude climbing back above $100 per barrel as optimism over Iran war de-escalation faded.
Oil Supply Shock Tests Market’s Risk Premium Assumptions
News Wire
WHAT HAPPENED
When Energy Shocks Force Massive Capital Reallocation
News Wire
According to CNBC, Britain is requiring solar panels and heat pumps in all new homes as part of its response to the Iran war, which has triggered what officials call “the largest supply disruption in
Economic Wire: United ditches more economy seats to make room for bigger pr
News Wire
According to CNBC, United is redesigning smaller aircraft cabins to squeeze in more premium seats that convert to beds, ditching economy rows to court high-spending travelers.
The 1970s Called — They Want Their Stagflation Back
News Wire
What Happened
Gas Prices Jump 24 Cents in a Week as Energy Markets Flash Warning Signs
Data Wire
Americans are paying $3.96 per gallon at the pump as of March 23rd, up a sharp 24 cents from just a week earlier. That’s a 6.5% spike in seven days — and gas is now up 26% over the past year, climbing
Treasury Yields Take a Breather as Markets Digest Mixed Signals
Data Wire
The 10-year Treasury yield dropped to 4.34% on March 23rd, down from 4.39% just three days earlier — a modest decline that masks some serious volatility underneath. Over the past week, yields have bou
Bond Markets Signal Fed Pivot as 2-Year Yields Drop Below 4%
Data Wire
The 2-year Treasury yield fell to 3.83% on Friday, down from 3.88% earlier in the week — a small move that carries big implications. When the bond market’s most sensitive instrument to Fed policy drop
US National Debt Hits $39 Trillion as Borrowing Costs Compound
Data Wire
The national debt crossed $39 trillion for the first time this week, climbing 7.7% over the past year — nearly double the pace of GDP growth. While daily fluctuations are normal, the year-over-year ac
The Yield Curve Is Telling Us Something Different Than You Think
Fed Watch
The 10-year/2-year Treasury spread ticked down to 0.49% yesterday from 0.51% the day before. That 0.02 percentage point drop might look trivial, but it’s part of a pattern that reveals something impor
What to Watch Tomorrow
Keep your eyes on how oil prices react to any overnight developments in the Middle East, especially if Brent crude can hold above $100 per barrel. The real test comes when bond traders return tomorrow morning — whether they double down on the growth story or start pricing in more energy-driven inflation risk.
New reports drop throughout the day as economic data is released.
ON1010 provides economic education for investors. Nothing in this briefing constitutes investment advice. Always consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.
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