The Morning Bell — April 29, 2026
The markets are telling two stories at once today — and they can’t both be right. While oil shocks usually send inflation expectations soaring, bond traders are shrugging off a 50% crude surge since February, keeping long-term inflation bets flat at 2.44%. Meanwhile, the UAE’s bombshell exit from OPEC threatens to crack oil prices just as the Strait of Hormuz crisis keeps supply tight, leaving the Fed frozen between energy-driven price spikes and an economy that’s starting to show cracks.
Today’s Briefing
The Morning Bell: Energy Reality Sets In
Markets are waking up to an uncomfortable truth: the Fed’s victory lap on inflation was premature. With crude holding above $100 and the Strait of Hormuz still closed after two months of military crisis, yesterday’s climb in Treasury rates signals th
Gas Prices Jump Nearly 2% in a Week as Summer Driving Season Looms
Gas prices spiked 1.95% in just one week, hitting $4.12 per gallon — the highest level in over a month. That’s a 30% jump from where we were a year ago, putting the average fill-up about $15 more expe
The World’s Biggest Banker Just Said the Quiet Part Out Loud About Debt
According to CNBC, JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon warned of “some kind of bond crisis” ahead, citing the unpredictable mix of mounting global debt risks.
European Markets React to Middle East Uncertainty — But Energy’s Real Story Is Elsewhere
What Happened
Fed Funds Rate Locked at 3.64%: The Pause That Speaks Volumes
The effective federal funds rate hasn’t budged from 3.64% in six straight trading days, a mechanical confirmation of what’s become the Fed’s new reality: monetary policy is on ice until the energy cri
Treasuries Rise as Oil Shock Keeps Fed on Pause
Bond yields climbed to 4.35% Monday, up from 4.31% on Thursday, as the 10-year Treasury continues its volatile dance around energy-driven inflation fears. The move higher reflects investors pricing in
2-Year Treasury Yields Hit Stall Speed as Energy Crisis Muddles Fed Path
The 2-year Treasury yield held dead flat at 3.78% through Friday, capping a week of indecision that tells the story of a bond market stuck between conflicting signals. After bouncing around between 3.
National Debt Hits $38.96 Trillion as Energy Crisis Drives Fiscal Concerns
The US national debt crossed $38.96 trillion last week, adding $7.3 billion in just three trading days. What makes this surge particularly notable: it’s happening while an energy crisis hammers govern
Yield Curve Flattening as Oil Crisis Reshapes Bond Markets
The spread between 10-year and 2-year Treasury yields compressed to 0.52% Monday from 0.57% Friday — a 5 basis point flattening that reflects how the Strait of Hormuz crisis is reshaping Fed expectati
Inflation Expectations Flat Despite Oil Crisis
Bond markets are sending a curious signal: despite crude oil surging nearly 50% since February, long-term inflation expectations remain stubbornly anchored at 2.44%.
The UAE Just Dealt OPEC Its Biggest Blow Since 2016
According to CNBC, the UAE announced it’s leaving OPEC, citing its desire to ramp up oil production without the cartel’s production constraints — a move that could put serious downward pressure on cru
AI Revenue Growth Stumbles as Energy Crisis Tests Tech Resilience
According to CNBC, Wall Street stocks fell after reports that OpenAI’s revenue and user growth are falling short of internal targets, dampening optimism around the AI trade just as Asian markets…
What to Watch Tomorrow
Keep your eyes on Treasury trading tomorrow as markets digest the UAE-OPEC split and what it means for oil price stability. If crude starts to wobble on potential UAE supply increases, watch for the 10-year yield to pull back from today’s 4.35% level — a sign that bond traders think this energy crisis might solve itself faster than anyone expected.
ON1010 provides economic education for investors. Nothing in this email constitutes investment advice. Always consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.
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