Bond Market Gives Back Ground on Inflation Bets
The 10-year breakeven inflation rate pulled back to 2.47% Monday, down from 2.5% the day before — a small but telling retreat from recent highs. What makes this interesting: the bond market seems to b
Author: ON1010 Research
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10Y-2Y Treasury Spread: Latest Release
Treasury Curve Still Flatlining After Four Months of Crisis
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US National Debt Hits $38.9 Trillion as Borrowing Pace Accelerates
The US national debt crossed $38.9 trillion this week, adding $23 billion in just three days and growing 6.35% over the past year. That’s roughly $2.3 trillion in new debt since last May — equivalent
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US Hiring Surge: Companies Just Added Workers at the Fastest Pace in 8 Months
American employers hired 5.55 million workers in March, a massive 13.4% jump from February that represents the strongest monthly hiring surge since last July. That’s 655,000 more hires than the month
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Workers Are Getting Pickier Again — But Not Like Before
Americans quit their jobs at the fastest pace in four months, with 3.17 million workers walking away in March — a 4.1% jump from February. But here’s the twist: quit rates are still running 3.5% below
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Job Openings Drop to Lowest Level Since Early 2021
The labor market’s slow-motion cooldown just picked up speed. Job openings fell 56,000 to 6.87 million in March — down 6.1% from a year ago and sitting at the lowest level since February 2021, when th
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Gas Prices Jump 8% in One Week as Energy Inflation Accelerates
Gas prices jumped 33 cents to $4.45 per gallon in just one week, marking the sharpest weekly increase since the initial pandemic recovery. That puts pump prices up a staggering 42% from last year — th
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Markets are living in two different realities right now — one where tech stoc…
Markets are living in two different realities right now — one where tech stocks keep hitting new highs, and another where oil is threatening to break $103 and stay there. This split personality isn’t
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The Morning Bell — May 05, 2026
Markets are living in two different worlds right now — tech stocks partying like it’s 2021 while oil barrels toward $103 and the Strait of Hormuz stays locked down. History has a harsh lesson for this
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Energy Reality Check: Markets Play Defense as Oil Retreats from Triple Digits
The oil shock narrative just got complicated. After WTI crude knocked on $104’s door yesterday morning, it’s pulled back to $104.04 this morning — still painfully elevated, but down 2.2% and giving markets their first real breather since the Strait o
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Treasury Curve Settles Into Sweet Spot as Energy Crisis Drags On
The 10-year-2-year Treasury spread sits at 0.5% — right in that Goldilocks zone where it’s positive enough to signal economic health but narrow enough to keep recession fears at bay. The spread has be
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Effective Federal Funds Rate (Daily): Latest Release
Fed Funds Rate Holds Dead Steady at 3.64% — But the Real Story Is What’s Not Moving
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US National Debt Drops $86 Billion in One Day — But Don’t Get Too Excited
The US national debt fell $86 billion yesterday to $38.9 trillion, marking the largest single-day decline since early March. But here’s the thing about daily debt moves: they’re usually about cash man
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Bond Market Hits the Snooze Button as 2-Year Treasury Yield Flatlines
The 2-year Treasury yield held dead steady at 3.88% yesterday, capping off a week of sideways trading that suggests bond investors are in full wait-and-see mode.
