The Morning Bell — March 04, 2026
The Fed finally hit its 2% inflation target just as Middle East tensions sent oil markets into overdrive — creating the most delicate balancing act in years. Bond traders are already losing patience,
Author: ON1010 Research
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Trump’s Shipping Gambit Reveals Energy’s Hidden Economic Weapon
According to CNBC, President Trump pledged to provide insurance and protection for Gulf shipping, declaring the U.S. will ensure “FREE FLOW of ENERGY to the WORLD.
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Market Shrugs as Inflation Expectations Hold Dead Steady
The 10-year breakeven inflation rate sits at 2.29% — unchanged from the prior day and barely budging from 2.25% a week ago. That’s about as close to the Fed’s 2% target as you can get while still acco
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The Yield Curve Is Steepening, But Not for the Reasons Bulls Want
The 10-year minus 2-year Treasury spread widened to 0.55% on Monday, down from 0.58% the day before but continuing a gradual steepening trend that has the curve at its steepest levels since early 2022
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The Fed’s Rate Lock: What Market Stability Actually Tells Us
The effective federal funds rate has sat glued at 3.64% for six straight days, perfectly tracking the Fed’s target with machine-like precision. But this stability isn’t boring — it’s revealing somethi
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US National Debt Hits $38.8 Trillion — But the Real Story Is the Pace
The US national debt crossed $38.8 trillion this week, adding $54.7 billion in just three trading days. That’s roughly $18 billion per day — or about $750 million per hour during market hours.
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Bond Market Sends Mixed Signals as 2-Year Yield Jumps
The 2-year Treasury yield jumped to 3.47% — up 9 basis points from Friday’s close and its highest level in nearly a week. But here’s what’s interesting: it’s still bouncing around in the same tight ra
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Treasury Yields Jump Back Above 4% as Bond Market Loses Its Patience
The 10-year Treasury yield climbed to 4.05% yesterday, up from 3.97% just last week — pushing back above the psychologically important 4% threshold that bond traders have been dancing around for month
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Gas Prices Jump 8 Cents in a Week — But Still Down 5% From Last Year
Gas prices spiked 2.7% in just one week, with the national average hitting $3.02 per gallon — the biggest weekly jump since early February. But zoom out, and drivers are still paying 4.7% less than th
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The Fed’s 3.5% Floor: Why This “Non-Move” Actually Matters
The Federal Reserve held its target rate steady at 3.5% through the first three days of March, extending an unchanged policy stance that has now persisted for weeks. While a static fed funds rate typi
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Fed Holds Steady at 3.75% as Yield Curve Returns to Normal Territory
10Y-2Y Spread: 0.58% (normal)
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The Morning Bell — March 03, 2026
The Fed’s carefully orchestrated soft landing just met its biggest test yet. While policymakers hold rates steady based on anchored inflation expectations, Iranian escalation is spiking oil prices and
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Iran War Premium Meets 2% Inflation Target: Something Has to Give
The Fed just achieved its inflation target at the exact moment geopolitical risk exploded back into the equation. The 10-year breakeven at 2.29% tells us markets still believe the central bank has this under control, but oil supertanker rates hitting
