Fed Holds Pat at 3.75% — But the Bond Market Is Telling a Different Story
10Y-2Y Spread: 0.59% (normal)
10Y-2Y Spread: 0.59% (normal)
Investors are waking up to a puzzle: the economy looks solid, but the market keeps whispering something different. The defensive rotation that’s been building for weeks isn’t letting up — utilities and staples are still outpacing tech and financials
The Federal Reserve kept its target rate unchanged at 3.5% through February, marking six consecutive days at this level — but the bigger question isn’t what they’re doing now, it’s whether this “restr
The Federal Reserve maintained its target rate at 3.75% today, keeping policy unchanged for another cycle as Treasury markets continue signaling that the central bank’s soft landing strategy is working.
The 10-year breakeven inflation rate dropped to 2.25% Thursday, down from 2.28% earlier in the week. That might seem like noise, but bond traders are essentially telling us they expect inflation to av
The 10-year/2-year Treasury spread ticked down to 0.59% yesterday from 0.60% — a tiny move that masks a much bigger story. After spending most of 2022 and 2023 inverted (the classic recession warning)
The national debt crossed $38.8 trillion this week — up 7.1% from a year ago — but here’s the twist: the economy is growing fast enough that this borrowing binge might actually be working. While the a
The 2-year Treasury yield dropped to 3.42% Wednesday, down from 3.45% the day before — a small move that reflects a much bigger shift in how bond traders are reading the Fed’s next moves. When the 2-y
The 10-year Treasury yield dropped 3 basis points to 4.02% Wednesday, breaking a choppy week of trading that’s seen rates ping-pong between 4.03% and 4.08%. That might not sound like much, but in bond
The effective federal funds rate held steady at 3.64% through February 26th, marking six straight days at that exact level. But here’s what’s interesting: this isn’t the Fed’s target rate of 3.25-3.50
What happened: According to CNBC Economy, Jack Dorsey’s company announced massive job cuts attributed to AI automation, prompting economists to debate whether this signals a broader labor market shift
The week told two different stories. The economic data painted a picture of steady-as-she-goes normalcy — Fed rates holding at comfortable levels, inflation expectations anchored, yield curves behaving themselves. But dig deeper into market behavior,
According to CNBC, President Trump suggested during his State of the Union that tariffs could someday “substantially replace” the federal income tax system.
Core producer prices surged 1.04% in December, the biggest monthly jump since June 2022. At 2.99% year-over-year, wholesale inflation is now running well above the Fed’s comfort zone — and acceleratin
Producer prices surged 0.81% in December, the sharpest monthly increase in nine months and more than double what economists expected. Year-over-year producer inflation now sits at 2.38%, marking the f
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