Central banks across the globe just blinked at the same time — and it wasn’t …
Central banks across the globe just blinked at the same time — and it wasn’t coordination, it was capitulation. From the Fed to the ECB to the Bank of England, policymakers are discovering that $100+ oil changes everything about their inflation fight, forcing them to choose between economic growth and price stability. The bond market’s violent moves this week suggest investors think the central bankers are picking wrong.
Today’s Briefing
Oil Above $100, Fed on Hold: The Energy Reality Check Markets Can’t Ignore
The Morning Bell
Markets are digesting an uncomfortable truth this morning: the Fed’s pause yesterday wasn’t dovish positioning — it was energy shock damage control. With crude oil holding above $100 and inflation expectations creeping higher, the central bank just m
Oil’s War Premium Returns — But for How Long?
News Wire
WHAT HAPPENED
Bank of England Stays Put While Global Risk Rewrites the Rules
News Wire
What Happened
Labor Costs Hit a Wall as Wage Growth Stalls Out
Data Wire
The Employment Cost Index held dead flat at 3.4% in the fourth quarter, marking the second straight quarter without any acceleration in what businesses pay their workers. That’s a sharp deceleration f
WHAT HAPPENED
News Wire
ECB’s Rate Pause Reveals Europe’s Stagflation Dilemma
Fed’s Inflation Gauge Heats Up: PCE Jumps 0.66% in March
Data Wire
The Fed’s favorite inflation measure just delivered its hottest monthly reading since last summer. The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index surged 0.66% in March, pushing the annual rat
Labor Market Sends Mixed Signals as Jobless Claims Drop Sharply
Data Wire
Initial jobless claims fell to 189,000 last week, down 26,000 from the prior week’s 215,000 reading. That’s the lowest level in three weeks — but it also highlights just how volatile this indicator ha
US Economy Keeps Accelerating — But Something’s Shifting
Data Wire
The US economy expanded at a 6.04% annual pace in Q4, capping off a year that saw GDP growth consistently surprise to the upside. That’s the kind of momentum that usually comes with warning labels.
The Fed’s Sweet Spot Continues: Inflation Holds Steady While Growth Delivers
News Wire
WHAT HAPPENED
Central Banks Stand Pat While Energy Markets Roil — Europe’s Mixed Signals
News Wire
WHAT HAPPENED
Mortgage Rates Hit 6.3% — The Housing Market’s Spring Surprise
Data Wire
Mortgage rates jumped to 6.3% this week, up from 6.23% just seven days ago — the kind of sharp weekly move that makes homebuyers pause mid-search and real estate agents check their phones twice.
The 10-Year Treasury Just Hit 4.42% — Here’s Why That’s the Real Story
Data Wire
The 10-year Treasury yield jumped 6 basis points to 4.42% yesterday — its highest level in over a week and part of a steady climb that’s pushed rates up 12 basis points in just five trading days.
Bond Markets Signal Fed Anxiety as 2-Year Treasury Jumps
Data Wire
The 2-year Treasury yield surged 8 basis points to 3.92% on Tuesday — its biggest single-day move in over a week and a clear sign that bond traders are getting nervous about something.
US National Debt Hits $38.95 Trillion as Growth Rate Moderates
Data Wire
The US national debt reached $38.95 trillion at the end of April, growing at its slowest pace in recent weeks as daily increases dropped to just $300 million — practically a rounding error by Washingt
Fed Funds Rate Holds Dead Steady as Energy Crisis Reshapes Policy Calculus
Fed Watch
The effective federal funds rate stayed locked at 3.64% through the end of April, marking six consecutive days without movement as the Federal Reserve holds its position amid the ongoing Strait of Hor
What to Watch Tomorrow
Tomorrow’s focus shifts to any fresh energy market developments and whether Treasury yields can hold their recent surge above key technical levels. With mortgage rates now above 6.3% and the 10-year Treasury testing 4.42%, the next few trading sessions will reveal whether this week’s rate spike has staying power or if markets are getting ahead of themselves on inflation fears.
New reports drop throughout the day as economic data is released.
ON1010 provides economic education for investors. Nothing in this briefing constitutes investment advice. Always consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.
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