The Morning Bell — March 25, 2026
The bond market is playing referee between two massive forces: China’s stimulus package promising global growth acceleration and Middle East tensions threatening to choke off energy supplies. While oil prices swing wildly and gas stations post their steepest weekly jump in months, Treasury traders are making their bet on which story matters more for the economy ahead.
Today’s Briefing
China’s stimulus surge meets Iran strike uncertainty — and the bond market is placing its bet.
Yesterday’s 10-year Treasury climb to 4.39% wasn’t random volatility. It was bond traders making a calculated wager: that China’s surprisingly concrete stimulus package matters more for global growth than five days of postponed Iran strikes matter fo
Oil’s Real Story: Supply Chain Stress Test Just Got Harder
According to CNBC, oil prices jumped Tuesday with Brent crude climbing back above $100 per barrel as optimism over Iran war de-escalation faded.
When Energy Shocks Force Massive Capital Reallocation
According to CNBC, Britain is requiring solar panels and heat pumps in all new homes as part of its response to the Iran war, which has triggered what officials call “the largest supply disruption in
Economic Wire: United ditches more economy seats to make room for bigger pr
According to CNBC, United is redesigning smaller aircraft cabins to squeeze in more premium seats that convert to beds, ditching economy rows to court high-spending travelers.
Gas Prices Jump 24 Cents in a Week as Energy Markets Flash Warning Signs
Americans are paying $3.96 per gallon at the pump as of March 23rd, up a sharp 24 cents from just a week earlier. That’s a 6.5% spike in seven days — and gas is now up 26% over the past year, climbing
Treasury Yields Take a Breather as Markets Digest Mixed Signals
The 10-year Treasury yield dropped to 4.34% on March 23rd, down from 4.39% just three days earlier — a modest decline that masks some serious volatility underneath. Over the past week, yields have bou
Bond Markets Signal Fed Pivot as 2-Year Yields Drop Below 4%
The 2-year Treasury yield fell to 3.83% on Friday, down from 3.88% earlier in the week — a small move that carries big implications. When the bond market’s most sensitive instrument to Fed policy drop
US National Debt Hits $39 Trillion as Borrowing Costs Compound
The national debt crossed $39 trillion for the first time this week, climbing 7.7% over the past year — nearly double the pace of GDP growth. While daily fluctuations are normal, the year-over-year ac
The Yield Curve Is Telling Us Something Different Than You Think
The 10-year/2-year Treasury spread ticked down to 0.49% yesterday from 0.51% the day before. That 0.02 percentage point drop might look trivial, but it’s part of a pattern that reveals something impor
What to Watch Tomorrow
Keep your eyes on how energy prices react to any overnight developments in the Middle East, particularly whether Brent crude can hold above $100 per barrel. Also watch for any Fed officials speaking tomorrow who might address how recent oil price spikes could complicate their inflation fight and interest rate decisions.
ON1010 provides economic education for investors. Nothing in this email constitutes investment advice. Always consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.
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