The market is wrestling with a contradiction that’s getting harder to ignore:…
The market is wrestling with a contradiction that’s getting harder to ignore: oil prices that should be screaming inflation, but bond markets that are shrugging their shoulders. While crude holds above $100 and gas prices jump nearly 2% in a week, long-term inflation expectations sit stubbornly flat at 2.44% — as if investors believe this energy crisis is just a temporary hiccup. Meanwhile, the UAE’s exit from OPEC throws another wrench into the works, potentially flooding the market with oil just as geopolitical tensions keep supply chains on edge.
Today’s Briefing
The Morning Bell: Energy Reality Sets In
The Morning Bell
Markets are waking up to an uncomfortable truth: the Fed’s victory lap on inflation was premature. With crude holding above $100 and the Strait of Hormuz still closed after two months of military crisis, yesterday’s climb in Treasury rates signals th
UAE Exit From OPEC Signals Broader Shift in Global Energy Power
News Wire
What Happened
Gas Prices Jump Nearly 2% in a Week as Summer Driving Season Looms
Data Wire
Gas prices spiked 1.95% in just one week, hitting $4.12 per gallon — the highest level in over a month. That’s a 30% jump from where we were a year ago, putting the average fill-up about $15 more expe
The World’s Biggest Banker Just Said the Quiet Part Out Loud About Debt
News Wire
According to CNBC, JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon warned of “some kind of bond crisis” ahead, citing the unpredictable mix of mounting global debt risks.
European Markets React to Middle East Uncertainty — But Energy’s Real Story Is Elsewhere
News Wire
What Happened
Fed Funds Rate Locked at 3.64%: The Pause That Speaks Volumes
Fed Watch
The effective federal funds rate hasn’t budged from 3.64% in six straight trading days, a mechanical confirmation of what’s become the Fed’s new reality: monetary policy is on ice until the energy cri
Treasuries Rise as Oil Shock Keeps Fed on Pause
Data Wire
Bond yields climbed to 4.35% Monday, up from 4.31% on Thursday, as the 10-year Treasury continues its volatile dance around energy-driven inflation fears. The move higher reflects investors pricing in
2-Year Treasury Yields Hit Stall Speed as Energy Crisis Muddles Fed Path
Data Wire
The 2-year Treasury yield held dead flat at 3.78% through Friday, capping a week of indecision that tells the story of a bond market stuck between conflicting signals. After bouncing around between 3.
National Debt Hits $38.96 Trillion as Energy Crisis Drives Fiscal Concerns
Data Wire
The US national debt crossed $38.96 trillion last week, adding $7.3 billion in just three trading days. What makes this surge particularly notable: it’s happening while an energy crisis hammers govern
Yield Curve Flattening as Oil Crisis Reshapes Bond Markets
Fed Watch
The spread between 10-year and 2-year Treasury yields compressed to 0.52% Monday from 0.57% Friday — a 5 basis point flattening that reflects how the Strait of Hormuz crisis is reshaping Fed expectati
Inflation Expectations Flat Despite Oil Crisis
Fed Watch
Bond markets are sending a curious signal: despite crude oil surging nearly 50% since February, long-term inflation expectations remain stubbornly anchored at 2.44%.
The UAE Just Dealt OPEC Its Biggest Blow Since 2016
News Wire
According to CNBC, the UAE announced it’s leaving OPEC, citing its desire to ramp up oil production without the cartel’s production constraints — a move that could put serious downward pressure on cru
AI Revenue Growth Stumbles as Energy Crisis Tests Tech Resilience
News Wire
According to CNBC, Wall Street stocks fell after reports that OpenAI’s revenue and user growth are falling short of internal targets, dampening optimism around the AI trade just as Asian markets…
What to Watch Tomorrow
Keep your eyes on Treasury yields tomorrow, especially the 10-year, which has been ping-ponging between 4.31% and 4.35% as investors try to figure out whether this energy shock is permanent or passing. Any move above 4.40% could signal that bond markets are finally waking up to the inflation risk that oil prices have been telegraphing for weeks.
New reports drop throughout the day as economic data is released.
ON1010 provides economic education for investors. Nothing in this briefing constitutes investment advice. Always consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.
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