Fed Holds at 3.75%, But Treasury Curve Tells a Different Story
10Y-2Y Spread: 0.56% (normal)
10Y-2Y Spread: 0.56% (normal)
The bond market is having a conversation the Fed doesn’t want to join. While Treasury yields climb across the curve and the 10-year hits weekly highs, the central bank keeps insisting everything is un
The 10-year Treasury yield hitting 4.09% yesterday while the 2-year jumped to 3.54% tells you everything about what bond traders really think of this “gradual normalization” narrative. That 56 basis point spread isn’t widening because investors sudde
The 10-year breakeven inflation rate ticked up to 2.31% yesterday from 2.29% the day before, a modest 0.02 percentage point rise that tells a much more important story than the small move suggests. Wh
The 10-year-2-year Treasury spread climbed to 0.56% yesterday, up from 0.55% the day before. That might sound boring, but here’s what’s actually happening: the bond market is pricing in a very differe
The 2-year Treasury yield jumped 3 basis points to 3.54% Tuesday, capping a 16 basis point surge over the past week. That’s the bond market calling the Fed’s bluff on their patient pause narrative.
The US national debt crossed $38.86 trillion yesterday, growing 7.3% over the past year — a pace that’s putting fresh pressure on the federal government’s borrowing costs just as interest rates remain
The 10-year Treasury yield climbed to 4.09% yesterday, up 3 basis points from the prior day and marking the highest level in over a week. More telling: the yield has risen 12 basis points since Februa
The 2-year Treasury yield jumped to 3.54% Tuesday, up from 3.51% the day before — a small move that’s part of a much bigger story. Over the past week, the yield has climbed from 3.38% to current level
The effective federal funds rate held steady at 3.64% for the sixth consecutive trading day through March 4th, locked in a stability pattern that’s become the quiet story everyone’s missing.
The 10-year Treasury yield climbed to 4.09% Wednesday, up from 4.06% the day before and marking its highest close since late February. That’s a 0.03 percentage point jump in a single session — small i
Treasury bill rates fell to 3.72% in February, down from 3.76% the prior month and the lowest reading since September. That 14.2% year-over-year decline tells a bigger story than the modest monthly dr
The government’s borrowing costs crept up again in February, with the average rate on Treasury Notes hitting 3.19% — up 0.021 percentage points from January and the sixth consecutive monthly increase.
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