The Morning Bell — March 12, 2026
Oil’s $90 comeback just shattered the Fed’s carefully constructed inflation narrative. While policymakers celebrate hitting their 2% target and approve bank mergers like everything’s normal, energy ma
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Oil Hits $100 as Fed’s Inflation Victory Lap Gets Interrupted
Oil’s surge back above $100 overnight — despite strategic reserve releases and reassuring Fed speeches — just shattered the neat little narrative that inflation was finally under control. Iran’s escalating shipping attacks in the Persian Gulf sent WT
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Fed Clears Another Bank Merger as Consolidation Wave Continues
What Happened: The Federal Reserve Board approved Associated Banc-Corp’s acquisition application, according to a Fed press release, marking another step in ongoing banking sector consolidation.
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Small Bank Merger Approvals Signal Fed’s Confidence in Regional Banking Health
According to Federal Reserve press releases, the Fed approved Associated Banc-Corp’s acquisition application, the latest in a string of regional bank merger approvals that suggests regulators see the…
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The Yield Curve Is Back to Normal. That’s Actually the Weird Part.
The 10-year to 2-year Treasury spread sits at 0.57%, barely changed from yesterday’s 0.58%. After nearly two years of an inverted yield curve screaming recession, we’re back to normal: longer bonds pa
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Market Inflation Expectations Tick Higher as Bond Vigilantes Stir
The 10-year breakeven inflation rate jumped to 2.36% on Tuesday, up from 2.33% the day before and marking the highest reading since March 6th. That 0.03 percentage point move might look small, but in
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The Fed Rate That Isn’t Moving (And What That Really Means)
The effective federal funds rate sits at 3.64% as of March 10th, unchanged for six straight trading days and locked in a remarkably tight range. But here’s what’s interesting: this stability isn’t com
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US National Debt Hits $38.9 Trillion as Daily Growth Accelerates
The US national debt crossed $38.9 trillion yesterday, adding $36 billion in a single day — that’s roughly $110 per American added to the tab in 24 hours. At 7.47% annual growth, the debt is expanding
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2-Year Treasury Holds Steady as Market Weighs Fed’s Next Move
The 2-year Treasury yield ticked up just 1 basis point to 3.57% Monday, continuing a remarkably tight trading range that suggests bond markets are in full “wait and see” mode. After months of volatile
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The 10-Year Just Hit 4.15% — And That’s Starting to Matter
The 10-year Treasury yield climbed to 4.15% yesterday, up from 4.12% the day before and continuing a steady march higher over the past week. What started as a gentle drift from 4.06% last Monday is be
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Oil Jumps 20% in a Week as Global Supply Concerns Resurface
Brent crude oil spiked $13.92 to $85.28 per barrel in just one week, marking a 19.5% surge that caught energy markets off guard. That’s the kind of move that usually signals either a major supply disr
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Oil’s Sharp Jump Points to Supply Fears, Not Economic Overheating
WTI crude oil spiked 18.98% to $78.37 per barrel in just one week, the biggest single-week move since the March 2022 invasion of Ukraine. But here’s what makes this surge different: it’s happening whi
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US Oil Inventories Crater 70% in Shocking Single-Week Drop
US crude oil stocks plummeted 18.5 million barrels in a single week, falling from 26.6 million to just 8.0 million barrels — a jaw-dropping 70% collapse that represents one of the most dramatic invent
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Natural Gas Prices Stabilize After Winter’s Wild Ride
Henry Hub natural gas closed at $2.99 per million BTU this week, down slightly from $3.01 the week prior — a boring change that tells a fascinating story. Just five weeks ago, prices hit $13.80 during
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