The Morning Bell

The Federal Reserve kept rates steady at 3.75% last week, but oil surging past $100 on Iran escalation just rewrote the entire policy playbook. While Fed officials were betting on gradual disinflation, energy markets are now pricing in a sustained ri

The 10-year Treasury yield hitting 4.09% yesterday while the 2-year jumped to 3.54% tells you everything about what bond traders really think of this “gradual normalization” narrative. That 56 basis point spread isn’t widening because investors sudde

The 10-year Treasury yield crept to 4.06% yesterday while the 2-year jumped to 3.51% — and that 55 basis point spread tells a story about confidence that the Fed’s own projections might be missing. When the yield curve steepens this quietly, it’s usu

The Fed just achieved its inflation target at the exact moment geopolitical risk exploded back into the equation. The 10-year breakeven at 2.29% tells us markets still believe the central bank has this under control, but oil supertanker rates hitting

Oil spiking to $80 on Iran war fears while the Fed sits pat at 3.5% creates exactly the scenario bond markets weren’t pricing for just two weeks ago. The 10-year breakeven at 2.25% tells you inflation expectations remain anchored, but that assumes sh

Investors are waking up to a puzzle: the economy looks solid, but the market keeps whispering something different. The defensive rotation that’s been building for weeks isn’t letting up — utilities and staples are still outpacing tech and financials

The bond market is speaking in riddles right now — every traditional signal says the economy should be humming along nicely, yet investors keep diving into defensive plays like something’s about to br

Investors are waking up to a quiet but persistent shift: money keeps flowing toward defensive stocks even as the economic data stays solid. The 10-year Treasury sits at 4.05% — its highest level in two weeks — while utilities and consumer staples hav