The Morning Bell

The energy crisis that started a month ago is forcing its way into every corner of the economic conversation. With oil holding near $94 and the Strait of Hormuz still closed, yesterday’s import price surge confirms what traders have been pricing in f

The bond market is drawing a line in the sand between two competing forces: China’s stimulus package promising global growth versus Middle East tensions threatening energy supplies. With gas prices ju

The energy shock that started a month ago is forcing a brutal recalibration across markets. With the Strait of Hormuz still closed and oil holding near $90 after yesterday’s sharp selloff, investors are grappling with a new reality: this isn’t a temp

Yesterday’s 10-year Treasury climb to 4.39% wasn’t random volatility. It was bond traders making a calculated wager: that China’s surprisingly concrete stimulus package matters more for global growth than five days of postponed Iran strikes matter fo

Beijing’s latest stimulus package delivered exactly what markets wanted: concrete numbers, real money, and a timeline that doesn’t stretch into 2027. The National Development and Reform Commission announced 2.3 trillion yuan in infrastructure spendin

Gold just got crushed 5%, silver plunged 10%, and copper joined the commodity carnage overnight. Meanwhile, Treasury yields are climbing and breakeven inflation expectations dropped to 2.37%. If you’re reading this as a straightforward “inflation tra

Producer prices just jumped 0.9% in February, the biggest monthly spike since last summer, but here’s the twist: this isn’t your typical inflation story. It’s an energy-driven supply shock that’s about to force the Fed into an impossible choice betwe