The Morning Bell

The Fujairah attack just forced markets to price two contradictory realities at once: oil back at triple digits while the Fed still leans dovish at 3.5%. That’s not supposed to work. The textbook says energy shocks mean inflation, which means hawkish

The Fujairah drone attack overnight just answered the question markets have been dancing around for weeks: can this economic expansion survive $100 oil?

Oil’s charge back above $100 overnight just kicked over the neat little inflation victory narrative right when bond markets were starting to believe it. The 10-year breakeven inflation rate jumped to 2.38% yesterday, up from 2.31% a week ago, while c

Oil’s surge back above $100 overnight — despite strategic reserve releases and reassuring Fed speeches — just shattered the neat little narrative that inflation was finally under control. Iran’s escalating shipping attacks in the Persian Gulf sent WT

Oil’s overnight surge back above $90 despite yesterday’s dramatic pullback tells you everything about how quickly this inflation story can flip. Just when traders thought the Strategic Petroleum Reserve release would cap energy prices for months, Ira

Oil’s dramatic reversal from above $100 back toward $95 overnight isn’t just an energy story — it’s rewriting the inflation equation that has bond traders and Fed watchers scrambling to reprice risk. The 10-year Treasury yield dropping 8 basis points

The Federal Reserve kept rates steady at 3.75% last week, but oil surging past $100 on Iran escalation just rewrote the entire policy playbook. While Fed officials were betting on gradual disinflation, energy markets are now pricing in a sustained ri