The Morning Bell — May 13, 2026
The inflation genie isn’t just out of the bottle — it’s redecorating the entire economy. Oil breaking $100, gas hitting $4.50, and core prices staying stubbornly above the Fed’s target are all part of
The Morning Bell
-
-
Bond Markets Just Set the Fed’s New Reality — And It’s Not Pretty
The bond market has delivered its verdict on the Fed’s inflation fight, and it’s not optimistic. With the 10-year Treasury climbing to 4.42% and oil holding above $100, investors are pricing in a world where rate cuts are a distant memory and higher-
-
Oil Breaks $100 as Markets Recalibrate the Energy Endgame
Markets are waking up to a new milestone: oil just punched through $100 for the first time since the Strait of Hormuz closed in February. At $101.17, crude is now carrying a 53% war premium over pre-crisis levels, and the psychological barrier breaki
-
The Morning Bell — May 12, 2026
When oil hits $98 and politicians start talking about suspending gas taxes, you know we’ve moved past the “this is temporary” phase of an energy crisis. Today’s bond market action tells the real story
-
Three stories, one reality: everyone’s playing defense right now
Three stories, one reality: everyone’s playing defense right now. China’s stockpiling oil like it’s going out of style, retailers are hiring workers for customers who aren’t showing up, and Netflix ju
-
The Morning Bell — May 11, 2026
Three seemingly unrelated stories paint the same picture: everyone’s playing defense. China’s stockpiling oil like it’s going out of style, retailers are hiring workers for customers who aren’t showin
-
Oil at $98 Tests the Energy Shock Playbook
Markets are waking up to a new reality: oil at $98 isn’t a spike anymore — it’s the new normal. With the Strait of Hormuz closed for over two months and Iran’s new leadership showing no signs of backing down, the energy shock is moving from acute cri
-
The economic data is telling two stories at once, and neither one makes compl…
The economic data is telling two stories at once, and neither one makes complete sense. Productivity is surging despite an energy crisis, jobless claims are rising in a tight labor market, and bond yi
-
The Morning Bell — May 08, 2026
The energy crisis that was supposed to break everything is starting to crack in unexpected ways. While oil retreats and bond yields drop, the real damage is showing up where it hurts most — in corpora
-
Oil’s $95 Reality Check: Energy Crisis Gets Comfortable
Markets are settling into an uncomfortable new normal this Friday morning. Oil holding steady near $95 signals traders have stopped betting on a quick Hormuz resolution — and started pricing in a prolonged energy shock. The question isn’t whether thi
-
Markets are wrestling with a contradiction that’s reshaping the entire inflat…
Markets are wrestling with a contradiction that’s reshaping the entire inflation playbook. Oil crashed 8% even as inventories plunged 71%, job growth stayed strong despite energy shocks, and bond mark
-
The Morning Bell — May 07, 2026
Markets are wrestling with a contradiction that’s reshaping the inflation playbook: oil crashes 8% while crude inventories collapse 71%, job growth beats expectations despite energy shocks, and bond m
-
The Energy Inflation Calculus Gets Complicated
Markets are wrestling with a new energy equation this morning. Oil’s retreat below $95 signals some easing in the Strait of Hormuz crisis premium, but bond markets are sending mixed signals about what comes next. The 10-year yield sits at 4.43% while
-
The economy is sending mixed signals that would make a meteorologist jealous
The economy is sending mixed signals that would make a meteorologist jealous. While oil prices retreat from their flirtation with triple digits and inflation bets cool slightly, the job market is heat
-
The Morning Bell — May 06, 2026
Markets are getting whiplash from mixed signals everywhere you look. Oil is retreating from triple digits while gas stations keep jacking up prices, employers are hiring like crazy but job openings ar
