The Morning Bell

Canada’s $27.6 billion in retaliatory tariffs took effect this week, and the market is starting to do the math on what that means for actual economic growth.

The headline number looked fine. The actual story is not.

Here is the uncomfortable thing about today’s jobs number: the S&P 500 sits at 7,747, the VIX is at 14.24, and credit spreads are near their tightest readings in history. Markets are pricing calm. But core inflation is running hotter than roughly nin

Here is the odd thing about Wednesday’s session: equities bounced, gold jumped $107.90 to $4,474.20, and the dollar slipped to 99.21. All three moving together like that points to something more interesting than a simple risk rally. It looks more lik

Here is the tension most people are missing this week: equities are selling off and the 10-year Treasury yield is sitting at 4.75%, well above the Fed’s 3.75% target rate. That 100-basis-point gap is the real story for anyone with a mortgage, a const

The story everyone is watching is oil and the Middle East. The story that will matter more for your portfolio and your business decisions is what is happening to government borrowing costs around the world, and the two are now feeding each other.

Kevin Warsh came to Jackson Hole and said the quiet part loud: rate hikes may still be on the table. Markets heard it. The detail most commentators are glossing over is that a more hawkish Fed path puts the central bank in direct tension with the Tre

Kevin Warsh delivers his Jackson Hole keynote today, and in theory it should move markets. In practice, the market has already told you what it thinks: the S&P 500 pushed to 7,730 yesterday, the VIX is sitting at 14.49, and credit spreads are as tigh

Weekly jobless claims print this morning, and for once the setup actually matters. Stocks are sitting near all-time highs, corporate profits just hit a record $4.3 trillion annualized, and the VIX dropped to 14.88. Everything looks calm. But the 10-y

Here is the quiet tension worth watching this morning: stocks are near all-time highs, credit spreads are tight, and the VIX sits at 15.70, signaling calm. But the 10-year Treasury yield is at 4.7%, running 93 basis points above the fed funds ceiling

Here is the tension worth watching this morning: gold is sitting near a three-month high at $4,696.70 while oil just dropped 3.4% to $82.12 a barrel. One of those moves screams “something is wrong.” The other says the economy is cooling in a healthy

The Federal Reserve’s annual Jackson Hole conference is the one moment each year when central bankers speak frankly about where policy is headed. This year, incoming Fed Chair Kevin Warsh takes the keynote, and bond investors are already repositionin

Gold climbed to $4,639.20 yesterday, up $122.90 in a single session. That is a big number on its own. The tension is that stocks fell at the same time: the S&P 500 dropped 0.87% to 7,641, the Dow shed 703 points, and the Russell 2000 gave back 1.34%.

Gold hit $4,542.50 yesterday. That is not a typo. The metal has climbed sharply even as the S&P 500 sits at 7,707, volatility is calm at 15.20, and credit spreads remain historically tight. On the surface, nothing looks wrong. So why is gold running?

The Fed held rates steady last week. Today at 2 p.m. Eastern, the FOMC minutes from that meeting go public, and investors will be combing every word for clues about what comes next. The twist: the bond market has already handed down its own verdict,