The Morning Bell — May 29, 2026
The market is telling two different stories right now, and they can’t both be true. Energy markets are screaming inflation warning while bond traders are betting the Fed has this under control — but with oil inventories cratering 63% and crude pushing $95, something’s got to give. Corporate America might be printing record profits, but those margins won’t last if energy costs keep climbing and the jobs market starts showing more cracks.
Today’s Briefing
Oil’s Iran Bounce Sets Up Fed’s Next Headache
Markets are waking up to a familiar reality check: energy inflation isn’t done with us yet. WTI crude’s bounce back above $90 overnight signals that yesterday’s brief Iran deal optimism was premature, and the Fed’s latest hawkish messaging is startin
Oil Markets Are Betting on Peace — That’s Usually When Things Go Wrong
According to CNBC, oil traders are positioning for a quick resolution to U.S.-Iran tensions, keeping crude prices surprisingly stable despite ongoing geopolitical risks. The market is essentially bett
Fed’s Favorite Inflation Gauge Heats Up Again
The PCE price index rose 0.4% in April, pushing annual inflation to 3.28% — the highest reading in three months and a clear signal that the Fed’s battle with price pressures is far from over.
Jobs Data Shows Cracks Starting to Form
Initial jobless claims jumped to 215,000 last week — up 5,000 from the prior week and hitting the highest level in three weeks. What’s more telling: this marks the fourth increase in the past six week
Corporate Profits Surge to Record High as Productivity Boom Powers Margin Expansion
Corporate America just delivered a masterclass in efficiency. After-tax profits jumped 3.3% to nearly $3.92 trillion in the latest quarter, marking a 17.4% surge from a year ago and the highest level
Fed Enforcement Actions Signal Tighter Scrutiny on Bank Risk Controls
According to Federal Reserve Press Releases, the Fed issued enforcement actions against former employees at Atlantic Union Bank and Frost Bank, highlighting ongoing regulatory oversight of banking pra
Mortgage Rates Hit 6.53% as Housing Market Faces New Pressure Point
Mortgage rates climbed to 6.53% this week, up from 6.51% a week earlier — marking the fourth consecutive weekly increase and pushing rates to their highest level since late April. What started as a mo
Natural Gas Prices Jump 9% in a Week as Summer Demand Kicks In Early
Natural gas prices spiked 8.7% this week to $3.11 per million BTU — the biggest weekly jump in two months. What’s interesting isn’t just the size of the move, but the timing: we’re still weeks away fr
Oil Inventories Crater 63% as Supply-Demand Balance Shifts Dramatically
US crude oil inventories just dropped 8.6 million barrels to 441.7 million barrels — a stunning 63% plunge that signals either a massive supply disruption or surging demand that’s draining storage tan
Treasury Yields Drop as Bond Market Questions the Durability of Recent Rate Spike
The 10-year Treasury yield fell to 4.48% yesterday, down from 4.50% Monday and continuing a pullback from last week’s peak of 4.67%. That’s a 19 basis point decline in just five trading days — meaning
Bond Market Sends Mixed Signals as 2-Year Treasury Hovers Near 4%
The 2-year Treasury yield dipped to 4.0% yesterday, down just one basis point from 4.01% the day before. That tiny move masks something bigger: yields have been dancing around the 4% line for a week,
US National Debt Drops for First Time in Weeks — But Don’t Get Too Excited
The US national debt ticked down $7.9 billion to $39.16 trillion yesterday, marking the first daily decline in over a week. While any decrease might seem like good news, this reflects normal Treasury
Yield Curve Narrowing as Bond Markets Digest Energy Crisis
The gap between 10-year and 2-year Treasury yields compressed to 0.46% — the tightest in a week and down from 0.53% just six trading days ago. While still positive, this narrowing reflects bond trader
Inflation Expectations Hold Steady Despite Energy Crisis
The bond market’s 10-year inflation expectations are sitting at 2.39%, essentially unchanged over the past week even as oil trades near $95 and the Strait of Hormuz remains closed. That’s either remar
What to Watch Tomorrow
Keep your eyes on how oil prices react to any overnight developments in the Middle East, especially if crude pushes definitively above $95. More importantly, watch whether tomorrow’s trading sees bond yields start climbing again — if the 10-year Treasury breaks back above 4.5%, it signals the market is finally pricing in the inflation risk that energy markets have been warning about all week.
ON1010 provides economic education for investors. Nothing in this email constitutes investment advice. Always consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.
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