The Morning Bell — April 02, 2026
Markets are getting whipsawed by mixed signals: consumers are spending like there’s no tomorrow while energy traders are pricing in geopolitical chaos, yet bond markets are actually rallying on expectations the Fed might need to cut rates sooner than expected. The disconnect between a resilient economy (retail sales jumping 0.6%) and falling Treasury yields suggests investors think this energy shock could be the thing that finally tips the scales toward slower growth.
Today’s Briefing
Retail Sales Jump 0.6% as Consumers Keep the Economic Engine Humming
Consumer spending surged 0.6% in February, well above expectations and marking the strongest monthly gain since last fall. With retail sales now up 2.3% year-over-year, American shoppers are defying r
Trump-Iran Ceasefire Talk Hints at Energy Market Relief, But Strait of Hormuz Remains Key Bottleneck
According to CNBC, President Trump indicated that Iran’s president has requested a ceasefire, though the U.S. is demanding the Strait of Hormuz be reopened before agreeing to any deal. The conflict be
Trump Claims Iran Wants Ceasefire, But Energy Markets Aren’t Buying It
According to CNBC, President Trump says Iran’s president has asked for a ceasefire but insists the Strait of Hormuz must reopen before any deal moves forward.
Natural Gas Prices Drop 5% as Spring Weather Dampens Heating Demand
Natural gas just hit $2.95 per million BTU — down 5.1% in a week and sitting 25% below last year’s levels. The weekly drop signals that winter’s grip on energy demand is finally loosening, but the ye
Fed Holds Steady at 3.64% — But the Real Story Is in the Trajectory
The Federal Reserve kept its benchmark rate unchanged at 3.64% for the third straight month in March, but zoom out and you see something more interesting: rates have fallen nearly 16% from their year-
10-Year Treasury Yield Drops to 4.3% as Bond Rally Gains Steam
The 10-year Treasury yield fell to 4.3% yesterday, down from 4.35% the day before and continuing a week-long slide from last Monday’s 4.44% peak. That’s a 14 basis point drop in just five trading days
Bond Market Shows First Signs of Fed Pivot Expectations
The 2-year Treasury yield dropped to 3.79% Monday, down from 3.82% Friday and continuing a week-long slide from nearly 4.0%. When the bond closest to Fed policy starts moving this consistently in one
Treasury Curve Steepens as Markets Digest Energy Shock Reality
The yield curve is quietly telling a different story than equity markets. The 10-year minus 2-year Treasury spread ticked up to 0.52% yesterday — its highest level in a week — as bond traders parsed t
Inflation Expectations Hold Steady as Markets Parse Energy Shock Impact
The 10-year breakeven inflation rate ticked up just 1 basis point to 2.31% yesterday — a remarkably calm response given oil prices have spiked from $66 to $95 since the Strait of Hormuz closure in lat
What to Watch Tomorrow
Keep your eyes on any updates from the Strait of Hormuz situation. If Trump’s ceasefire claims gain traction, it could provide the relief valve markets desperately need. The bond market’s Fed pivot expectations will live or die based on whether this energy crisis proves temporary or starts showing up in broader economic data.
ON1010 provides economic education for investors. Nothing in this email constitutes investment advice. Always consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Correction (September 25, 2026): An earlier version of this briefing included a story reporting a record one-week collapse in US crude oil inventories. That figure compared two different storage regions. EIA data show US commercial crude oil stocks, excluding the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, rose 5.5 million barrels to 461.6 million in the week ending March 27, 2026. The story has been withdrawn for correction. The natural gas summary now shows prices 25% below a year earlier. Figures are EIA weekly Henry Hub spot averages; year-over-year compares the same week 52 weeks earlier.
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