Economic Wire: A million-dollar gold bear emerges ahead of the Fed decision
Someone Just Bet $1 Million That Gold’s Rally Is Over
Author: ON1010 Research
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Housing Starts Jump 11% as Construction Boom Accelerates
Housing starts surged to 1.502 million units in March, an 11% monthly jump that pushed construction activity 17% higher than a year ago. That’s the strongest pace since late 2022, suggesting builders
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Fed Holds Steady as Energy Shock Keeps Rate Cuts Off the Table
10Y-2Y Spread: 0.52% (normal)
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Taco Bell’s 8% Growth Shows Consumer Spending Isn’t Dead — Yet
What Happened: According to CNBC, Yum Brands beat earnings estimates driven by Taco Bell’s 8% same-store sales growth in the quarter. The parent company outperformed across the board.
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The market is wrestling with a contradiction that’s getting harder to ignore:…
The market is wrestling with a contradiction that’s getting harder to ignore: oil prices that should be screaming inflation, but bond markets that are shrugging their shoulders. While crude holds abov
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The Morning Bell — April 29, 2026
The markets are telling two stories at once today — and they can’t both be right. While oil shocks usually send inflation expectations soaring, bond traders are shrugging off a 50% crude surge since F
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Fed Day Energy Standoff: Markets Brace for Powell’s Oil Reality Check
Markets are waking up to an uncomfortable collision course: the Fed meets today with crude oil holding above $100 and inflation expectations suddenly looking naive. What was supposed to be a routine policy hold has become a test of whether Powell ack
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AI Revenue Growth Stumbles as Energy Crisis Tests Tech Resilience
According to CNBC, Wall Street stocks fell after reports that OpenAI’s revenue and user growth are falling short of internal targets, dampening optimism around the AI trade just as Asian markets…
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The UAE Just Dealt OPEC Its Biggest Blow Since 2016
According to CNBC, the UAE announced it’s leaving OPEC, citing its desire to ramp up oil production without the cartel’s production constraints — a move that could put serious downward pressure on cru
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Inflation Expectations Flat Despite Oil Crisis
Bond markets are sending a curious signal: despite crude oil surging nearly 50% since February, long-term inflation expectations remain stubbornly anchored at 2.44%.
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Yield Curve Flattening as Oil Crisis Reshapes Bond Markets
The spread between 10-year and 2-year Treasury yields compressed to 0.52% Monday from 0.57% Friday — a 5 basis point flattening that reflects how the Strait of Hormuz crisis is reshaping Fed expectati
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National Debt Hits $38.96 Trillion as Energy Crisis Drives Fiscal Concerns
The US national debt crossed $38.96 trillion last week, adding $7.3 billion in just three trading days. What makes this surge particularly notable: it’s happening while an energy crisis hammers govern
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2-Year Treasury Yields Hit Stall Speed as Energy Crisis Muddles Fed Path
The 2-year Treasury yield held dead flat at 3.78% through Friday, capping a week of indecision that tells the story of a bond market stuck between conflicting signals. After bouncing around between 3.
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Treasuries Rise as Oil Shock Keeps Fed on Pause
Bond yields climbed to 4.35% Monday, up from 4.31% on Thursday, as the 10-year Treasury continues its volatile dance around energy-driven inflation fears. The move higher reflects investors pricing in
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Fed Funds Rate Locked at 3.64%: The Pause That Speaks Volumes
The effective federal funds rate hasn’t budged from 3.64% in six straight trading days, a mechanical confirmation of what’s become the Fed’s new reality: monetary policy is on ice until the energy cri
