The bond market is acting like that friend who stays perfectly calm during ch…
The bond market is acting like that friend who stays perfectly calm during chaos — Treasury yields are barely moving while trade war threats fly and AI spending explodes around them. This unusual stability in rates and inflation expectations suggests investors either think the Fed has everything under control, or they’re collectively holding their breath waiting for the next shoe to drop.
Today’s Briefing
Europe’s Trade War Warning Shows Why Currency Hedging Just Got More Important
News Wire
WHAT HAPPENED
Bond Markets Shrug Off Latest Tariff Threat — For Now
News Wire
WHAT HAPPENED
Trade Policy Gets Strategic: U.S. Rewarding Economic Rivals While Pressuring Allies
News Wire
What Happened
Tech Giants Break Their Own Rules as AI Spending Spirals
News Wire
What Happened
Economic Wire: Fed’s Waller says next jobs report, not Supreme Court ruling
News Wire
Fed Governor Signals Jobs Data Trumps Court Drama for Rate Decisions
Fed Holds Steady at 3.75% as Bond Market Sends Mixed Signals
Fed Watch
10Y-2Y Spread: 0.6% (normal)
Fed Holds Steady at 3.5% — But the Real Story Is What Comes Next
Fed Watch
The Federal Reserve kept its target rate unchanged at 3.5% through February 23rd, marking six straight days of stability in what’s becoming a critical holding pattern for the U.S. economy.
Fed Rate Holds Steady at 3.64% as Market Finds Its Sweet Spot
Fed Watch
The effective federal funds rate has locked in at 3.64% for six straight days through February 19th — a sign that overnight lending markets have found their equilibrium after months of policy adjustme
Treasury Yield Curve Continues Gradual Steepening as Growth Narrative Strengthens
Fed Watch
The bond market is quietly telling a story of economic confidence. The spread between 10-year and 2-year Treasury yields held steady at 0.6% on Thursday, down just slightly from 0.61% the day before —
Bond Market Shrugs as Inflation Expectations Hold Near Fed’s Target
Fed Watch
The 10-year breakeven inflation rate ticked down to 2.28% Thursday, barely budging from 2.29% the day before. What’s remarkable isn’t the microscopic daily move — it’s that long-term inflation expecta
Fed Funds Rate Holds Rock-Steady at 3.64% as Markets Settle Into New Normal
Fed Watch
The effective federal funds rate has barely budged from 3.64% for six straight trading days, signaling that money markets have found their equilibrium after months of policy adjustments. This isn’t th
Treasury Yields Hold Steady as Markets Navigate Policy Crossroads
Data Wire
The 10-year Treasury yield is sitting perfectly still at 4.08% — unchanged for two straight days and bouncing in a tight 5-basis-point range over the past week. When the bond market’s benchmark rate s
2-Year Treasury Yield Creeps Higher as Bond Market Sends Mixed Signals
Data Wire
The 2-year Treasury yield ticked up to 3.48% Thursday, continuing a choppy dance that’s kept bond traders guessing about the Fed’s next moves. While the one basis point bump seems minor, it caps off a
US National Debt Tops $38.7 Trillion as Government Borrowing Accelerates
Data Wire
The US national debt hit $38.749 trillion on February 20th, climbing 7% over the past year — the fastest pace since the pandemic spending surge. That’s roughly $5.4 billion added in just one day, a ra
The Yield Curve Stays Put: Why This Boring Number Is Actually Big News
Fed Watch
The 10-year-2-year Treasury spread held steady at 0.6% this week, barely budging from its recent range. That might sound like market-moving excitement on par with watching paint dry — but this stabili
Inflation Expectations Cool as Bond Market Shifts Into Wait-and-See Mode
Fed Watch
The bond market just sent a subtle but important signal: 10-year inflation expectations dropped to 2.26%, down from 2.28% just three trading days ago. That’s the lowest reading since mid-February, sug
What to Watch Tomorrow
Keep your eyes on how long this bond market zen can last as trade tensions escalate with Europe. If currency volatility from trade disputes starts spilling into Treasury markets, that rock-steady 4.08% yield on the 10-year could finally break out of its tight range — and that would signal the calm period is officially over.
ON1010 provides economic education for investors. Nothing in this briefing constitutes investment advice. Always consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.
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