The oil shock that started as a geopolitical crisis is now morphing into a fu…
The oil shock that started as a geopolitical crisis is now morphing into a full-blown economic puzzle, with bonds rallying even as crude hits $100 and the Fed holds rates steady despite inflationary pressure. Meanwhile, the US keeps adding $25 billion to its debt pile daily while Europe’s confidence craters — creating a perfect storm where traditional economic playbooks might not apply.
Today’s Briefing
Oil at $100: What the Strait Closure Really Means
The Morning Bell
The oil shock is getting real. WTI crude pushing past $100 this morning as the Strait of Hormuz closure enters its second month, and the market is finally starting to price in what “20% of global oil supply offline” actually means. The question isn’t
Bonds Rally as Jobs Data Takes Center Stage Amid War-Driven Uncertainty
News Wire
According to CNBC, Treasury yields dropped Friday as investors positioned ahead of key employment data while monitoring the ongoing U.S.-Iran conflict in its fifth week.
Fed Holds Steady as Oil Shock Forces Policy Pivot
Fed Watch
10Y-2Y Spread: 0.56% (normal)
Europe’s Confidence Crisis Exposes the Real Cost of Energy Shocks
News Wire
According to CNBC, economic sentiment in Europe plummeted in March as the Iran war and Strait of Hormuz closure hammered consumer confidence.
Powell Says No Rate Hikes Despite Oil Shock — But Markets Aren’t Convinced
News Wire
According to CNBC, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell told Harvard University on Monday that the central bank sees no need for rate hikes despite oil’s surge to $95 following the Strait of Hormuz…
Bonds Rally Hard Before 10-Year Yield Settles Back Above 4.4%
Data Wire
The 10-year Treasury yield closed at 4.44% Friday, up from 4.42% Thursday — but that tiny move masks some serious volatility this week. After dipping as low as 4.33% Wednesday, yields have now bounced
Bond Market Sends Mixed Signals as 2-Year Yield Swings Daily
Data Wire
The 2-year Treasury yield dropped 8 basis points to 3.88% Thursday, erasing most of Wednesday’s jump — but that volatility itself tells the story. When short-term rates ping-pong like this, it usually
US Debt Crosses $39 Trillion as Daily Additions Hit $25 Billion
Data Wire
The US national debt just punched through $39 trillion for the first time, adding $25 billion in a single day and growing at a 7.7% annual pace that far outstrips economic growth.
What to Watch Tomorrow
Keep your eyes on Treasury yields tomorrow as they’ve been swinging wildly between 4.33% and 4.44% this week, signaling serious uncertainty about where rates head next. With oil still climbing and employment data on deck, any surprise in the jobs numbers could either cement the Fed’s no-hike stance or force markets to price in a completely different scenario.
New reports drop throughout the day as economic data is released.
ON1010 provides economic education for investors. Nothing in this briefing constitutes investment advice. Always consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.
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