SPX7,580.06+0.22%DJIA51,032+0.72%COMP26,973+0.20%RUT2,919.34-0.59%CL$87.76-1.28%GC$4,569.90+1.57%DX98.94-0.08%VIX15.32-2.67%Fed Funds4.50%HOLD10Y4.287%-0.031CPI Y/Y2.8%-0.1%Core PCE2.7%-0.1%Unemp4.2%0.0NFP+150kMayGDP Q/Q+2.6%Q1Retail+0.4%M/MSPX7,580.06+0.22%DJIA51,032+0.72%COMP26,973+0.20%RUT2,919.34-0.59%CL$87.76-1.28%GC$4,569.90+1.57%DX98.94-0.08%VIX15.32-2.67%Fed Funds4.50%HOLD10Y4.287%-0.031CPI Y/Y2.8%-0.1%Core PCE2.7%-0.1%Unemp4.2%0.0NFP+150kMayGDP Q/Q+2.6%Q1Retail+0.4%M/M

Bond Markets Send Mixed Signals as Fed Faces Fresh Pressure

ByON1010 Research Posted onFebruary 25, 2026 at 6:00 AM EST Reading Time: 3 minutes

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The Opening Bell

Markets are waking up to a puzzle this morning: the yield curve is normalizing, inflation expectations are anchored, yet defensive sectors are crushing it and the VIX is sitting 13% above its 20-day average. That’s not the setup you’d expect six trading days into a Fed pause, and it’s exactly the kind of mixed signal that makes professional traders nervous.

Market Snapshot

Fed Funds Target Range: 3.5%–3.75%

10-Year Treasury: 4.03%

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