Bond Markets Signal Fed Caution as 2-Year Yield Ticks Higher
The 2-year Treasury yield rose to 3.81% Tuesday, up from 3.79% the day before — a small move that tells a bigger story about what bond traders expect from the Federal Reserve.
Author: ON1010 Research
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10-Year Treasury Hits 4.33% as Bond Market Tests New Range
The 10-year Treasury yield climbed to 4.33% yesterday, up from 4.30% the day before — a small move that caps off a volatile week of trading between 4.30% and 4.44%. What’s notable isn’t the size of th
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Initial Claims Drop to 202K: The Job Market’s Quiet Confidence
Initial jobless claims fell to 202,000 last week, down 9,000 from the prior week and marking the lowest reading in nearly a month. But here’s what’s more interesting than the drop itself: claims have
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March Jobs Preview: Why 59K Payrolls Would Actually Be Good News
According to CNBC, economists expect March payrolls to rise just 59,000 with unemployment holding at 4.4%.
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Mortgage Rates Hit Six-Week High as Spring Buying Season Heats Up
The 30-year mortgage rate jumped to 6.46% this week, up from 6.38% last week — the highest level since mid-February. That’s five straight weeks of increases, with rates climbing nearly half a percenta
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Markets are watching two stories unfold at once: Iran may want a ceasefire bu…
Markets are watching two stories unfold at once: Iran may want a ceasefire but oil traders aren’t convinced, while bond markets are quietly pricing in a Fed that’s closer to cutting rates than raising
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The Morning Bell — April 02, 2026
Markets are getting whipsawed by mixed signals: consumers are spending like there’s no tomorrow while energy traders are pricing in geopolitical chaos, yet bond markets are actually rallying on expect
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Energy Shock Reality Check: Markets Test Trump’s Iran Gambit
Markets are waking up to a harsh reality: geopolitical relief rallies don’t last when oil is still trading at $107. Trump’s ceasefire claims sent bonds higher and volatility lower yesterday, but with the Strait of Hormuz still closed and crude invent
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Inflation Expectations Hold Steady as Markets Parse Energy Shock Impact
The 10-year breakeven inflation rate ticked up just 1 basis point to 2.31% yesterday — a remarkably calm response given oil prices have spiked from $66 to $95 since the Strait of Hormuz closure in lat
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Treasury Curve Steepens as Markets Digest Energy Shock Reality
The yield curve is quietly telling a different story than equity markets. The 10-year minus 2-year Treasury spread ticked up to 0.52% yesterday — its highest level in a week — as bond traders parsed t
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Bond Market Shows First Signs of Fed Pivot Expectations
The 2-year Treasury yield dropped to 3.79% Monday, down from 3.82% Friday and continuing a week-long slide from nearly 4.0%. When the bond closest to Fed policy starts moving this consistently in one
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10-Year Treasury Yield Drops to 4.3% as Bond Rally Gains Steam
The 10-year Treasury yield fell to 4.3% yesterday, down from 4.35% the day before and continuing a week-long slide from last Monday’s 4.44% peak. That’s a 14 basis point drop in just five trading days
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Fed Holds Steady at 3.64% — But the Real Story Is in the Trajectory
The Federal Reserve kept its benchmark rate unchanged at 3.64% for the third straight month in March, but zoom out and you see something more interesting: rates have fallen nearly 16% from their year-
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Crude Oil Inventories Crater 74% in Massive Drawdown
US crude oil stocks just posted their largest single-week decline in recent memory, plummeting 23.4 million barrels to just 8.1 million barrels — a stunning 74% drop that caught energy markets off gua
