SPX7,580.06+0.22%DJIA51,032+0.72%COMP26,973+0.20%RUT2,919.34-0.59%CL$87.76-1.28%GC$4,569.90+1.57%DX98.94-0.08%VIX15.32-2.67%Fed Funds4.50%HOLD10Y4.287%-0.031CPI Y/Y2.8%-0.1%Core PCE2.7%-0.1%Unemp4.2%0.0NFP+150kMayGDP Q/Q+2.6%Q1Retail+0.4%M/MSPX7,580.06+0.22%DJIA51,032+0.72%COMP26,973+0.20%RUT2,919.34-0.59%CL$87.76-1.28%GC$4,569.90+1.57%DX98.94-0.08%VIX15.32-2.67%Fed Funds4.50%HOLD10Y4.287%-0.031CPI Y/Y2.8%-0.1%Core PCE2.7%-0.1%Unemp4.2%0.0NFP+150kMayGDP Q/Q+2.6%Q1Retail+0.4%M/M

Bond Markets Just Set the Fed’s New Reality — And It’s Not Pretty

ByON1010 Research Posted onMay 13, 2026 at 5:59 AM EDT Reading Time: 3 minutes

Premium Analysis

The Opening Bell

The bond market has delivered its verdict on the Fed’s inflation fight, and it’s not optimistic. With the 10-year Treasury climbing to 4.42% and oil holding above $100, investors are pricing in a world where rate cuts are a distant memory and higher-for-longer means exactly that. Today’s question isn’t when the Fed pivots — it’s how long inflation stays uncomfortably above target.

Market Snapshot

Fed Funds Target Range: 3.5%-3.75%

10-Year Treasury: 4.42%

Premium Analysis

Continue reading the full analysis

Enter the email address associated with your ON1010 Premium subscription.

Not a Premium subscriber yet?

Subscribe to Premium

Monthly ($39/mo) or Annual ($240/yr, save 49%)