The Yield Curve Just Gave Back a Week of Progress
The 10-year/2-year Treasury spread slipped to 0.44% on Friday, down from 0.51% earlier in the week. A small move on paper, but directionally meaningful after months of slow, hard-won normalization.
Fed Watch
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The Fed Is Holding. The Real Question Is Whether It Still Can.
The effective federal funds rate has sat at 3.88% for six consecutive days, tracking the Fed’s target range like a metronome. No drama there. The drama is elsewhere.
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The Fed Holds at 4.0%. The Bond Market Has a Very Different Opinion.
10Y-2Y Spread: 0.47% (normal, steepening)
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Inflation Expectations Have Barely Moved in Six Days. That Stillness Is Worth Examining.
The 10-year breakeven inflation rate has sat at exactly 2.36% for six consecutive trading days. No drift up, no drift down. In a world where tariffs, labor markets, and Federal Reserve messaging are a
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The Fed Is Holding. The Real Question Is Whether It Can Afford To.
The effective federal funds rate has sat at 3.88% every single day since at least September 30. No drift, no surprise. The Fed said it would hold, and the market is holding with it, tracking the targe
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Inflation Expectations Are Frozen.
The 10-year breakeven inflation rate has sat at 2.36% for four straight trading days, and barely budged over the past week. Bond markets are telling us something precise: investors expect average infl
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The Fed’s Rate Has Been Frozen for Six Straight Days. That Stillness Is the Story.
The effective federal funds rate has sat at 3.88% for six consecutive trading days. No drift up, no drift down. When the overnight rate locks in that tightly, it usually means one thing: the Fed is co
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The Fed Is Parked at 3.75%. The Real Question Is What’s Keeping It There.
The federal funds rate has sat at 3.75% every single day this month, and that’s exactly the point. A rate that doesn’t move is still a policy. It’s just a different kind.
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The Fed Holds Steady. The Bond Market Tells a Different Story.
10Y-2Y Spread: 0.46% (normal, positively sloped)
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The Bond Market’s Inflation Forecast Has Barely Moved in a Week. Here’s Why That’s Telling.
The 10-year breakeven inflation rate has sat at exactly 2.36% for three straight days, after ticking up from 2.34% last week. At first glance, that looks like nothing. But in a week where long-term in
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The Yield Curve Just Un-Inverted. Now Comes the Tricky Part.
The 10-year/2-year Treasury spread sits at 0.45% as of October 2, a full 13 basis points wider than just a week ago. The curve is positive and steepening. For investors who spent years watching this s
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The Fed Is Holding at 3.75%. The Real Question Is How Long That Lasts.
The federal funds rate has sat at 3.75% every single day since at least late September. No surprise there. The Fed is in a holding pattern, watching data before its next move. But “no change” is itsel
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The Fed Holds at 4.0%, But the Bond Market Has Other Ideas
10Y-2Y Spread: 0.46% (normal, steep by recent standards)
