Fed Watch

The 10-year/2-year Treasury spread compressed to 0.38% yesterday, down from 0.47% just a week ago. That’s a 19% narrowing in five trading days, the curve is still positively sloped, but the margin is

The effective federal funds rate sits frozen at 3.62%, unchanged for six straight trading days as the Fed navigates the most complex policy environment since the 1970s. With oil trading near $95 foll

The 10-year/2-year Treasury spread sat unchanged at 0.41% yesterday, marking five straight sessions of remarkably stable yield curve positioning. For a metric that spent much of the past two years inv

The effective federal funds rate has now sat unchanged at 3.62% for six straight trading days, cementing what appears to be the Fed’s new terminal position in response to the ongoing energy crisis. Wi

Fed Holds Steady at 3.5% as Oil Crisis Forces Policy Pause

The federal funds rate barely budged in May, slipping just 0.01 percentage points to 3.63% — essentially unchanged for the fourth straight month. After cutting rates aggressively through late 2025, th

The Federal Reserve’s benchmark rate sits unchanged at 3.5%, marking six straight days of stability, but beneath this surface calm lies a fundamental shift in monetary policy thinking. What looked li

The 10-year minus 2-year Treasury spread widened to 0.47% Thursday, its highest level in nearly a week, as bond traders continue pricing out Federal Reserve rate cuts. The spread has been grinding hig

The bond market’s 10-year inflation expectations are sitting at 2.39%, essentially unchanged over the past week even as oil trades near $95 and the Strait of Hormuz remains closed. That’s either remar

The gap between 10-year and 2-year Treasury yields compressed to 0.46% — the tightest in a week and down from 0.53% just six trading days ago. While still positive, this narrowing reflects bond trader

Bond markets are quietly signaling that the worst of the energy crisis may be behind us. The 10-year breakeven inflation rate dropped to 2.39% yesterday from 2.4% the day before — the fourth decline i

The gap between 10-year and 2-year Treasury yields ticked down to 0.48% yesterday, a modest decline from 0.49% the day before. While that’s a tiny move, the bigger story is where we are: the yield cur

10Y-2Y Spread: 0.43% (normal)

10Y-2Y Spread: 0.43% (normal)

The effective federal funds rate sat unchanged at 3.62% for the third straight day, a remarkable display of monetary policy stability while oil trades near $95 and the Strait of Hormuz remains closed.