The Fed Holds at 3.75%: What a Frozen Rate Reveals About a Very Unfrozen Debate
10Y-2Y Spread: 0.5% (normal, positive slope)
Fed Watch
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Bond Markets Just Raised the Inflation Bar, Quietly
The 10-year breakeven inflation rate ticked up to 2.34% on August 20, its sixth consecutive daily increase and the highest reading in this recent run. That’s a small move in isolation. String six of t
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The Yield Curve Just Turned Positive Again. What Does That Actually Mean?
The gap between 10-year and 2-year Treasury yields hit +0.50% on August 20, the widest positive spread in recent weeks, after holding in a tight range between +0.46% and +0.53% all month. For bond wat
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The Fed’s Rate Hasn’t Moved in Months. That Stillness Is the Story.
The effective federal funds rate has held at 3.63% every single day this week, and for longer than that. When a number doesn’t move, it’s easy to gloss over. That’s a mistake. Stability at a policy ra
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The Fed Holds at 3.75%, But the Real Story Is What the Bond Market Is Saying
10Y-2Y Spread: 0.52% (normal, positively sloped)
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The Yield Curve Healed. Now What?
The 10-year/2-year Treasury spread sits at 0.52% as of August 18, holding steady in positive territory after a week that has ranged from 0.48% to 0.53%. That’s a small number that carries a big story:
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The Fed’s Rate Is on Autopilot. That’s Actually the Story.
The effective federal funds rate has held at 3.63% for six consecutive days. No movement. No drift. The overnight lending market is doing exactly what the Fed wants it to do, and that kind of quiet pr
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The Fed Holds at 3.75%, But the Yield Curve Is Asking a Question Nobody Wants to Answer
10Y-2Y Spread: 0.51% (normal, steepening)
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Bond Markets to Fed: “We Believe You”
The 10-year breakeven inflation rate ticked up to 2.28% on August 17, essentially flat over the past week and sitting in a tight band between 2.24% and 2.29% since August 10. That steadiness is the st
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The Yield Curve Just Flashed Its Cleanest “All Clear” Since the Inversion Era Ended
The spread between 10-year and 2-year Treasury yields has quietly crept to +0.53% as of August 17, up from +0.47% just a week ago. That’s a small move in absolute terms. In context, it’s a meaningful
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The Fed Isn’t Moving. That’s the Whole Story.
The effective federal funds rate has sat at 3.63% every single day for at least the past week. No drift. No surprise. The interbank lending market is doing exactly what the Fed wants it to do, and tha
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The Fed’s Overnight Rate Is Frozen. That’s the Whole Story.
The effective federal funds rate has sat at exactly 3.63% for six straight trading sessions. No drift, no surprise, no drama. The Fed said 3.63%, and 3.63% is exactly what the market delivered.
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The Recession Alarm Has Gone Quiet. Here’s What the Yield Curve Is Saying Now.
The 10-year minus 2-year Treasury spread held at 0.48% on August 13, exactly where it sat the day before and the day before that. Three consecutive identical readings. That kind of stillness in the yi
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The Recession Alarm That Keeps Not Going Off
The yield curve has been positive for months now, and this week it barely moved, holding at 0.48% on both Monday and Tuesday after a quiet climb from 0.44% just a week ago. That stability is the story
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Bond Investors Just Told You Something Worth Hearing
The 10-year breakeven inflation rate ticked up to 2.29% on Monday, its highest reading in the past week, after briefly dipping to 2.22% last Tuesday. That four-day recovery is small in isolation. In c
