Fed Watch

Fed Holds Rates Steady at 3.5% — But the Real Story Is What’s Not Happening

The effective federal funds rate held steady at 3.63% for the sixth straight day, sitting precisely in the middle of the Fed’s 3.50-3.75% target range. In normal times, this kind of stability would be

10Y-2Y Spread: 0.46% (normal)

The bond market’s crystal ball just got a little cloudier. The 10-year breakeven inflation rate — what investors expect average inflation to be over the next decade — ticked up to 2.47% from 2.45% ove

The 10-year minus 2-year Treasury spread narrowed to 0.47% Friday, down from 0.48% earlier in the week. While still in positive territory, the curve continues its gradual flattening trend that started

The 10-year minus 2-year Treasury spread ticked down to 0.48% Thursday, continuing a subtle but steady flattening trend that’s dropped the curve 6 basis points over the past week. While still safely p

The effective federal funds rate ticked down to 3.63% yesterday from 3.64%, a tiny move that signals something bigger: the Fed’s tight grip on monetary policy is starting to show hairline cracks as th

The 10-year minus 2-year Treasury spread held steady at 0.49% this week, marking its most stable stretch since the energy crisis began. After months of wild swings driven by oil-shock inflation fears,

The effective federal funds rate stayed glued to 3.64% for the sixth straight trading day, a level of precision that would make a Swiss watchmaker jealous. But in a world where oil has spiked 44% and

10Y-2Y Spread: 0.49% (normal)

The 10-year breakeven inflation rate dropped to 2.42% yesterday, down from 2.47% the day before and continuing a week-long slide from 2.50%. That’s a puzzle worth solving: why are long-term inflation

The 10-year/2-year Treasury spread narrowed slightly to 0.49% yesterday, down from 0.50% the day before. That’s the yield curve’s quietest move in weeks, but it masks a bigger question: should bond ma

The effective federal funds rate is sitting exactly where it has for weeks now — locked at 3.64% with zero movement across the past six trading sessions. In normal times, this kind of stability would

The 10-year breakeven inflation rate pulled back to 2.47% Monday, down from 2.5% the day before — a small but telling retreat from recent highs. What makes this interesting: the bond market seems to b

Treasury Curve Still Flatlining After Four Months of Crisis