Fed Watch

HEADLINE: Bond Markets Dial Back Inflation Fears as 10-Year Breakevens Cool to 2.31%

The 10-year minus 2-year Treasury spread held at 0.49% for the second straight day, a picture of calm that masks the turmoil brewing beneath the surface. While bond traders keep the curve stable, the

The 10-year/2-year Treasury spread ticked down to 0.49% yesterday from 0.51% the day before. That 0.02 percentage point drop might look trivial, but it’s part of a pattern that reveals something impor

The 10-year minus 2-year Treasury spread held steady at 0.51% through the weekend, unchanged from Friday but sitting comfortably in positive territory after months of gradual steepening. While markets

The effective federal funds rate held steady at 3.64% through March 20th, marking six consecutive trading days without movement. While that might sound boring, it’s actually telling us something impor

The 10-year minus 2-year Treasury spread dropped to 0.46% yesterday, down from 0.5% the day before and continuing a week-long slide from 0.55%. That’s an 8% decline in a single day for a spread that m

The effective federal funds rate held steady at 3.64% on March 18th, unchanged for six straight trading days. In a world where financial markets obsess over quarter-point moves, this rock-solid stabil

The 10-year breakeven inflation rate ticked up to 2.40% Tuesday, rising just 3 basis points from Monday’s 2.37%. That tiny move might seem like market noise, but here’s what’s interesting: inflation e

The 10-year-2-year Treasury spread dropped to 0.5% yesterday, down from 0.52% the day before. That tiny 0.02 percentage point decline might seem irrelevant, but it’s actually the most important signal

The 10-year breakeven inflation rate ticked up to 2.37% on Friday, barely budging from 2.36% the day before. But here’s what’s interesting: despite all the market turbulence lately, long-term inflatio

The yield curve stayed positive for another day, but just barely. The 10-year minus 2-year Treasury spread dropped to 0.52% on Monday from 0.55% the day before — a small move that keeps the economy’s

The 10-year breakeven inflation rate held steady at 2.36% through Friday, unchanged from earlier in the week and barely budging from the 2.33% to 2.38% range it has occupied for the past week. This ma

The 10-year Treasury yield is trading 0.55 percentage points above the 2-year, holding steady after several days of modest fluctuation around the mid-0.50s level. That’s a far cry from the deeply inve

The bond market just delivered a verdict on inflation that might surprise anyone listening to the noise: long-term breakeven rates fell to 2.36% on Thursday, down from 2.38% the day before. That puts