Inflation Expectations Flat Despite Oil Crisis
Bond markets are sending a curious signal: despite crude oil surging nearly 50% since February, long-term inflation expectations remain stubbornly anchored at 2.44%.
Fed Watch
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Yield Curve Flattening as Oil Crisis Reshapes Bond Markets
The spread between 10-year and 2-year Treasury yields compressed to 0.52% Monday from 0.57% Friday — a 5 basis point flattening that reflects how the Strait of Hormuz crisis is reshaping Fed expectati
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Fed Funds Rate Locked at 3.64%: The Pause That Speaks Volumes
The effective federal funds rate hasn’t budged from 3.64% in six straight trading days, a mechanical confirmation of what’s become the Fed’s new reality: monetary policy is on ice until the energy cri
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Fed Holds Steady at 3.5%-3.75% Range as Energy Crisis Reshapes Rate Path
10Y-2Y Spread: 0.51% (normal)
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10Y-2Y Treasury Spread: Latest Release
Treasury Yield Curve Slowly Normalizing as Energy Shock Dominates Fed Thinking
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Bond Market Drops Inflation Expectations as Crisis Fatigue Sets In
The 10-year breakeven inflation rate ticked up to 2.34% yesterday, but that modest 0.03 percentage point rise tells a more interesting story than the headline suggests. Bond traders are pricing in lon
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Treasury Curve Holds Steady as Oil Crisis Reshapes Fed Calculus
The 10-year minus 2-year Treasury spread stayed flat at 0.52% yesterday, holding near its recent range despite the ongoing energy crisis. While the curve remains positively sloped — suggesting no imme
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Inflation Expectations Hold Steady as Markets Parse Energy Shock Impact
The 10-year breakeven inflation rate ticked up just 1 basis point to 2.31% yesterday — a remarkably calm response given oil prices have spiked from $66 to $95 since the Strait of Hormuz closure in lat
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Treasury Curve Steepens as Markets Digest Energy Shock Reality
The yield curve is quietly telling a different story than equity markets. The 10-year minus 2-year Treasury spread ticked up to 0.52% yesterday — its highest level in a week — as bond traders parsed t
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Fed Holds Steady at 3.64% — But the Real Story Is in the Trajectory
The Federal Reserve kept its benchmark rate unchanged at 3.64% for the third straight month in March, but zoom out and you see something more interesting: rates have fallen nearly 16% from their year-
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Bond Market Whispers Tell a Different Story Than Headlines
The 10-year breakeven inflation rate slipped to 2.3% yesterday, down a hair from 2.31% the day before. That’s barely a blip — but in a world where oil has spiked from $66 to $95 since the Strait of Ho
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Treasury Yield Curve Hangs in the Balance as Oil Shock Tests Recovery
The gap between 10-year and 2-year Treasury yields has narrowed to just 0.51%, down from 0.53% yesterday — putting one of the market’s most watched recession indicators back in focus. While still posi
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Fed Holds Steady as Oil Shock Forces Policy Pivot
10Y-2Y Spread: 0.56% (normal)
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Fed Funds Rate Stays Glued at 3.64% — But That’s the Story
The effective federal funds rate held steady at 3.64% on Wednesday, marking six straight days of no movement. But here’s what’s interesting: this isn’t normal Fed stability — it’s markets pricing in a
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Fed Holds Steady at 3.75% as Energy Crisis Reshapes Rate Path
10Y-2Y Spread: 0.49% (normal)
