The Morning Bell — March 27, 2026
When oil hits $94, mortgage rates spike to 6.38%, and economic forecasters can’t agree on anything, you’re witnessing an economy at an inflection point. The Iran conflict isn’t just a geopolitical crisis anymore — it’s reshaping everything from Fed policy to housing markets, and the ripple effects are just getting started.
Today’s Briefing
Energy Shock Reality Hits Home as Markets Brace for Fed Response
The energy crisis that started a month ago is forcing its way into every corner of the economic conversation. With oil holding near $94 and the Strait of Hormuz still closed, yesterday’s import price surge confirms what traders have been pricing in f
Fed Holds Steady at 3.75% as Energy Crisis Reshapes Rate Path
10Y-2Y Spread: 0.49% (normal)
When Forecasters Start Diverging This Much, Someone’s About to Be Very Wrong
WHAT HAPPENED
Economic Wire: Iran war will spare no major economy, says OECD — but the UK
The UK faces deeper economic damage from the ongoing Iran conflict than other developed economies, according to the OECD’s interim outlook released Thursday.
Markets Shrug Off Geopolitical Crisis — For Now
According to CNBC, President Trump said oil and stock market reactions to the Iran conflict have been less severe than he expected, expressing confidence in the war effort and predicting economic…
Mortgage Rates Jump Most Since Election Week
The 30-year mortgage rate spiked 0.16 percentage points to 6.38% this week — the biggest single-week jump since November’s post-election surge. After flirting with the 6% level just three weeks ago, r
Jobless Claims Edge Higher as Energy Crisis Complicates Fed’s Next Move
Initial jobless claims ticked up to 210,000 last week from 205,000 the week prior — a modest 5,000 increase that might normally fly under the radar. But with oil trading near $95 following the Strait
National Debt Drops for Third Day as Treasury Manages Cash Flow
The US national debt fell by $9.3 billion yesterday to $38.99 trillion, marking the third consecutive daily decline after hitting a fresh peak above $39 trillion earlier this week. While daily debt mo
Fed Quietly Greenlights Morgan Stanley’s Shadow Banking Expansion
What Happened: According to Federal Reserve press releases, the Fed and Office of the Comptroller of the Currency jointly approved an exemption for Morgan Stanley Bank under Section 23A of the Federal
What to Watch Tomorrow
Keep your eyes on oil prices and any new developments from the Strait of Hormuz — even small moves could trigger bigger waves across interest rates and Fed expectations. Also watch for any signs that this week’s jobless claims uptick was just the beginning of broader labor market softness as energy costs bite into business spending.
ON1010 provides economic education for investors. Nothing in this email constitutes investment advice. Always consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Free Research
The economy moves fast. We make sure you move faster.
Economic data, policy shifts, and market signals — delivered to your inbox.
Subscribe Free