S&P 5007,666.60+0.46%Dow53,062+0.56%Nasdaq26,218+0.45%Russell 20002,953.17+1.13%Oil$90.63+0.45%Gold$4,434.30+1.98%Dollar99.56-0.11%VIX15.20-6.98%Fed Funds4.50%HOLD10Y4.287%-0.031CPI Y/Y2.8%-0.1%Core PCE2.7%-0.1%Unemp4.2%0.0NFP+150kMayGDP Q/Q+2.6%Q1Retail+0.4%M/MS&P 5007,666.60+0.46%Dow53,062+0.56%Nasdaq26,218+0.45%Russell 20002,953.17+1.13%Oil$90.63+0.45%Gold$4,434.30+1.98%Dollar99.56-0.11%VIX15.20-6.98%Fed Funds4.50%HOLD10Y4.287%-0.031CPI Y/Y2.8%-0.1%Core PCE2.7%-0.1%Unemp4.2%0.0NFP+150kMayGDP Q/Q+2.6%Q1Retail+0.4%M/M

Fed Holds at 3.5%-3.75%: The Pause That Tells You Everything

ByON1010 Research Posted onJuly 30, 2026 at 10:41 AM EDT Reading Time: 4 minutes

U.S. Treasury yield curve today vs one year ago — chart from ON1010.com

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The Signal

Fed Funds Target Range: 3.5%-3.75%

10-Year Treasury: 4.61%

2-Year Treasury: 4.26%

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