Daily Briefing — June 04, 2026
The bond market is playing a dangerous game of chicken with inflation, betting that energy prices will somehow magically retreat even as natural gas surges. With Fed Chair Warsh settling into his new role and oil above $95, something’s got to give — and the smart money isn’t betting on energy prices backing down first.
Today’s Briefing
The Morning Bell: Bond Markets Test Inflation Resolve Ahead of Key Data
Bond markets are sending mixed signals as traders brace for this week’s inflation data, with 2-year yields drifting lower even as energy prices hold near crisis highs. The disconnect between short-term rates and persistent oil pressure above $95 sugg
Economic Wire: Fed Chair Warsh makes first hires at central bank, including
According to CNBC, new Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh has made his first personnel moves, including hiring the author of the Federal Reserve chapter in the conservative “Project 2025” policy…
Hiring Breadth Returns: ADP Shows Job Growth Spreading Beyond Healthcare
According to CNBC Economy, private payrolls rose 122,000 in May, beating expectations and marking a shift from the narrow, healthcare-dominated hiring patterns of recent months.
Fed Funds Target Rate (Lower Bound): Latest Release
Fed Holds Steady at 3.5% as Oil Crisis Forces Policy Pause
Natural Gas Prices Jump 19% in Four Weeks as Summer Demand Builds
Natural gas prices hit $3.16 per million BTU this week, capping a steady four-week climb that’s pushed the benchmark fuel up 19% since early May. The rally breaks a months-long downtrend that had ener
US National Debt Hits $39.2 Trillion as Borrowing Pace Accelerates
The US national debt crossed $39.2 trillion on Monday, rising $26.5 billion in a single day and marking a 6.2% increase over the past year. That’s roughly $2.3 trillion in new debt over 12 months — eq
The 10-Year Yield Hits Pause — But Don’t Get Comfortable
The 10-year Treasury yield dipped to 4.46% Tuesday, down a hair from 4.47% Monday. That tiny move masks a bigger story: after bouncing around between 4.45% and 4.50% for the past week, the bond market
Federal Funds Rate Locks In at 3.62%, The New Normal Takes Hold
The effective federal funds rate has now sat unchanged at 3.62% for six straight trading days, cementing what appears to be the Fed’s new terminal position in response to the ongoing energy crisis. Wi
Two-Year Treasury Yields Hit Pause at 4.05% — But the Calm May Be Deceiving
The 2-year Treasury yield held steady at 4.05% Tuesday, unchanged from Monday but up from 3.98% just last week. That seven basis point jump might look small, but in the bond world, it’s shouting somet
Yield Curve Holds Steady as Markets Wait for Next Signal
The 10-year/2-year Treasury spread sat unchanged at 0.41% yesterday, marking five straight sessions of remarkably stable yield curve positioning. For a metric that spent much of the past two years inv
What to Watch Tomorrow
Keep your eyes glued to this week’s inflation data, which could shatter the bond market’s current calm if it shows energy price pressures bleeding into broader price measures. The yield curve’s unusual stability over the past five sessions suggests traders are holding their breath, and that kind of quiet rarely lasts long.
ON1010 provides economic education for investors. Nothing in this email constitutes investment advice. Always consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Correction (September 25, 2026): An earlier version of this briefing included a story reporting a record one-week collapse in US crude oil inventories. That figure compared two different storage regions. EIA data show US commercial crude oil stocks, excluding the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, fell 8.0 million barrels to 433.7 million in the week ending May 29, 2026. The story has been withdrawn for correction.
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