Daily Briefing — July 07, 2026
Today’s Briefing
The Market Is Sending Two Signals at Once. Pay Attention to Both.
The S&P 500 closed Thursday essentially flat at 7,483, but that headline number is doing a lot of hiding. Underneath it, a very different story is playing out, and it is the kind of split that tends to matter more than the index level itself.
The Fed Is on Pause. The Market Is Nervous. Those Two Things Aren’t Contradictions.
The effective federal funds rate has sat at 3.63% for six consecutive trading days, unwavering. No drift, no signal. The Fed isn’t moving, and the market knows it.
The Yield Curve Just Stopped Moving. That’s More Interesting Than It Sounds.
The 10-year minus 2-year Treasury spread has held at 0.35% for two consecutive readings, capping a steady climb from 0.28% just two weeks ago. It doesn’t sound like much, but the direction and the des
Bond Markets Are Saying Inflation Is Under Control. Is That Still the Right Bet?
The 10-year breakeven inflation rate ticked up to 2.24% as of July 6, just one basis point above the prior reading. That is not a dramatic move. But the steadiness of this number, hovering in a tight
ON1010 provides economic education for investors. Nothing in this email constitutes investment advice. Always consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.
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