Fed Holds Steady at 3.75% as Yield Curve Returns to Normal Territory
10Y-2Y Spread: 0.58% (normal)
Fed Watch
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Inflation Expectations Creep Higher as Markets Test the Fed’s Resolve
The 10-year breakeven inflation rate ticked up to 2.29% on March 2nd, rising 0.04 percentage points from the previous reading of 2.25%. That puts market expectations for long-term inflation squarely a
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The Yield Curve Is Quietly Going the Wrong Direction
The yield curve spread between 10-year and 2-year Treasuries fell to 0.58% last week, down from 0.59% the week before. That’s the fifth consecutive day of narrowing, bringing the spread back to levels
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The Fed Rate That Isn’t Moving Is Telling Us Everything About Where We Are
The effective federal funds rate held steady at 3.64% for the sixth consecutive day through February 27, barely budging from where it’s been parked since the Fed’s last move. But here’s what’s interes
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Fed Holds Steady as Rate-Cut Cycle Slows to a Crawl
The Federal Reserve kept rates unchanged at 3.64% in February, marking the second straight month without a move after six consecutive cuts that began last fall. What started as an aggressive easing cy
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Fed Holds Steady as Markets Price in Policy Shift Ahead
The Federal Reserve held its benchmark rate unchanged at 3.50% through early March, maintaining the same level it has held since late February. While the stability looks unremarkable on the surface, i
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Fed Holds Steady at 3.75% as Market Divergence Deepens
10Y-2Y Spread: 0.59% (normal)
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Fed Holds Steady at 3.5% as Markets Price In Uncertainty
The Federal Reserve kept its benchmark rate unchanged at 3.5% through March 1st, maintaining the same level it’s held since late February. While the lack of movement might seem unremarkable, it’s happ
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Fed Holds Pat at 3.75% — But the Bond Market Is Telling a Different Story
10Y-2Y Spread: 0.59% (normal)
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Fed Holds Steady at 3.5% — But the Real Story Is What Comes Next
The Federal Reserve kept its target rate unchanged at 3.5% through February, marking six consecutive days at this level — but the bigger question isn’t what they’re doing now, it’s whether this “restr
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Fed Holds Steady at 3.75% as Bond Market Signals Economic Confidence
The Federal Reserve maintained its target rate at 3.75% today, keeping policy unchanged for another cycle as Treasury markets continue signaling that the central bank’s soft landing strategy is working.
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Bond Markets Just Whispered Something Important About the Next Decade
The 10-year breakeven inflation rate dropped to 2.25% Thursday, down from 2.28% earlier in the week. That might seem like noise, but bond traders are essentially telling us they expect inflation to av
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The Yield Curve Is Quietly Steepening — But Not for the Reasons You’d Expect
The 10-year/2-year Treasury spread ticked down to 0.59% yesterday from 0.60% — a tiny move that masks a much bigger story. After spending most of 2022 and 2023 inverted (the classic recession warning)
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The Fed Rate That Isn’t Moving — And Why That’s the Real Story
The effective federal funds rate held steady at 3.64% through February 26th, marking six straight days at that exact level. But here’s what’s interesting: this isn’t the Fed’s target rate of 3.25-3.50
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Fed Holds Steady at 3.5% — But Markets Are Pricing In Something Different
The Federal Reserve kept its target rate unchanged at 3.5% through February 27th, maintaining the same level for nearly a week straight. But here’s what’s more interesting than the non-move itself: wh
