Fed Watch

10Y-2Y Spread: 0.43% (normal)

The effective federal funds rate sat unchanged at 3.62% for the third straight day, a remarkable display of monetary policy stability while oil trades near $95 and the Strait of Hormuz remains closed.

The effective federal funds rate dropped a single basis point to 3.62% Monday, the first movement in nearly a week. It’s a tiny shift, but in the current environment where every Fed move gets parsed f

The 10-year minus 2-year Treasury spread held steady at 0.54% on Monday, unchanged from Friday’s close after a week of gradual steepening. That’s a far cry from the inverted curve that dominated 2022-

The 10-year/2-year Treasury spread jumped to 0.54% on May 18, up from 0.50% just three days earlier — the steepest curve in weeks. That 8% move might look small, but it signals a major shift in how bo

The effective federal funds rate held steady at 3.63% through mid-May, marking six straight days at the exact same level. That’s not unusual by itself, but it reflects a Fed that has completely abando

Bond markets are telling a surprisingly calm story. Despite oil prices sitting near $95 and an active military crisis choking off 20% of global energy supplies, the 10-year breakeven inflation rate he

The 10-year minus 2-year Treasury spread ticked down to 0.47% yesterday, pulling back slightly from its recent bounce off deeply inverted levels. While the curve remains positive (avoiding recession s

The Federal Reserve kept its target rate unchanged at 3.5% through mid-May, marking six straight sessions without adjustment as policymakers grapple with an oil shock that has fundamentally altered th

10Y-2Y Spread: 0.48% (normal)

Fed Holds Rates Steady at 3.5% — But the Real Story Is What’s Not Happening

The effective federal funds rate held steady at 3.63% for the sixth straight day, sitting precisely in the middle of the Fed’s 3.50-3.75% target range. In normal times, this kind of stability would be

10Y-2Y Spread: 0.46% (normal)

The bond market’s crystal ball just got a little cloudier. The 10-year breakeven inflation rate — what investors expect average inflation to be over the next decade — ticked up to 2.47% from 2.45% ove

The 10-year minus 2-year Treasury spread narrowed to 0.47% Friday, down from 0.48% earlier in the week. While still in positive territory, the curve continues its gradual flattening trend that started