Fed Holds at 3.75%, But Treasury Curve Tells a Different Story
10Y-2Y Spread: 0.56% (normal)
Fed Watch
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Bond Market Sees Through the Noise: Inflation Expectations Hold Steady Despite Market Jitters
The 10-year breakeven inflation rate ticked up to 2.31% yesterday from 2.29% the day before, a modest 0.02 percentage point rise that tells a much more important story than the small move suggests. Wh
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The Yield Curve Is Quietly Telling a Different Story Than the Headlines
The 10-year-2-year Treasury spread climbed to 0.56% yesterday, up from 0.55% the day before. That might sound boring, but here’s what’s actually happening: the bond market is pricing in a very differe
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The Fed Rate That Isn’t Moving (And Why That’s the Story)
The effective federal funds rate held steady at 3.64% for the sixth consecutive trading day through March 4th, locked in a stability pattern that’s become the quiet story everyone’s missing.
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Fed Holds Steady at 3.5%, But the Real Story Is What’s Not Happening
The Fed’s funds rate target held at 3.5% through early March, marking another week of policy stability. But here’s what’s interesting: markets are pricing in cuts that aren’t coming, and the disconnec
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Fed Holds Steady as Markets Price In Next Move
The Federal Reserve kept rates unchanged at the March meeting, maintaining the target range at 3.5%–3.75%. But with Treasury curves normalizing and inflation expectations anchored, the real question isn’t what the Fed did today — it’s when they start
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Inflation Expectations Stuck at 2.29% — And That’s the Real Story
The 10-year breakeven inflation rate held steady at 2.29% for the third straight day, unchanged from 2.29% on Monday. That flatness isn’t boring — it’s telling us something important about how markets
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The Yield Curve’s Quiet Message: Why 0.55% Matters More Than You Think
The 10-year minus 2-year Treasury spread held steady at 0.55% this week, barely budging from its recent range. That might sound boring, but here’s what’s actually happening: the bond market is pricing
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The Fed’s Target Rate Is Working — Maybe Too Well
The effective federal funds rate held steady at 3.64% for the sixth straight day through March 3rd, showing remarkable stability that masks a more complex story about monetary policy transmission.
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Fed Holds Steady at 3.5% as Markets Price in Growing Uncertainty
The Federal Reserve kept its target rate unchanged at 3.5% through early March, maintaining the same level for at least six consecutive days. But here’s what’s more telling: while the Fed shows no urg
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Fed Holds Steady at 3.75% as Bond Market Signals Confidence in Rate Path
10Y-2Y Spread: 0.58% (normal)
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Market Shrugs as Inflation Expectations Hold Dead Steady
The 10-year breakeven inflation rate sits at 2.29% — unchanged from the prior day and barely budging from 2.25% a week ago. That’s about as close to the Fed’s 2% target as you can get while still acco
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The Yield Curve Is Steepening, But Not for the Reasons Bulls Want
The 10-year minus 2-year Treasury spread widened to 0.55% on Monday, down from 0.58% the day before but continuing a gradual steepening trend that has the curve at its steepest levels since early 2022
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The Fed’s Rate Lock: What Market Stability Actually Tells Us
The effective federal funds rate has sat glued at 3.64% for six straight days, perfectly tracking the Fed’s target with machine-like precision. But this stability isn’t boring — it’s revealing somethi
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The Fed’s 3.5% Floor: Why This “Non-Move” Actually Matters
The Federal Reserve held its target rate steady at 3.5% through the first three days of March, extending an unchanged policy stance that has now persisted for weeks. While a static fed funds rate typi
