The Fed Holds at 3.5%: What Staying Put Actually Means Right Now
The federal funds rate target sits at 3.5%, unchanged, and that steadiness is doing more work than it looks like on the surface.
Fed Watch
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Fed Holds at 3.5%-3.75%: The Pause That Tells You Everything
10Y-2Y Spread: 0.45% (normal, positively sloped)
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Bond Markets to the Fed: Inflation Isn’t Dead Yet
The 10-year breakeven inflation rate ticked up to 2.26% on July 29, rising 0.06 percentage points from 2.20% the day before. That’s a small daily move, but it lands in a context that makes it worth pa
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The Yield Curve Just Flashed Its Most Positive Reading in Weeks. Here’s What That Actually Means.
The gap between 10-year and 2-year Treasury yields widened to 0.45% on July 29, up from 0.35% the day before. That single-day jump of 0.10 percentage points is meaningful because this particular sprea
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The Fed Is Holding Steady. The Question Is How Much Longer.
The effective federal funds rate has been parked at 3.63% for six consecutive trading days, and that flatline tells a story worth understanding. The Fed made a decision, the market agreed, and overnig
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The Fed Holds at 3.5%-3.75%. The Bond Market Has a Different Opinion.
10Y-2Y Spread: 0.34% (normal, positive slope)
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Warsh’s First Big Test: What He Says Today Matters More Than What He Does
10Y-2Y Spread: +0.34% (normal, but barely)
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The Fed Is on Pause. The Real Question Is What It’s Waiting For.
The effective federal funds rate has sat at 3.63% every single day this week. No drift. No surprise. The overnight market is moving in perfect lockstep with the Fed’s target, which tells you something
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The Fed Is on Pause. Markets Are Sending a Different Signal.
The effective federal funds rate has sat at 3.63% every single trading day this week, unchanged since at least July 17. No drift up, no drift down. Just flat. That kind of stability is the overnight m
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The Fed Is on Hold. The Market Has Already Moved.
The effective federal funds rate has sat at 3.63% for six straight days, a rate that barely flickers day to day because it is simply tracking the Fed’s current target range. No surprise there. But the
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Bond Markets Are Saying Something Interesting About Inflation. Listen Closely.
The 10-year breakeven inflation rate ticked up to 2.25% on July 20, from 2.24% on July 17. That’s barely a rounding error on its own. But zoom out to the past week, and you see something worth paying
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The Yield Curve Is Positive Again. That’s Actually the Tricky Part.
The 10-year minus 2-year Treasury spread ticked up to 0.39% on July 20, continuing a stretch of positive readings that would have looked impossible just a couple of years ago. After one of the longest
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The Fed’s Quiet Hold: What Steady Rates Are Telling the Economy Right Now
The effective federal funds rate has barely moved in weeks, holding at 3.63% as of July 17, 2026. That stillness is the story.
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Fed Holds Steady. The Real Story Is What’s Happening Around It.
10Y-2Y Spread: 0.37% (normal, but narrowing)
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The Fed Holds at 3.75%: What a Non-Move Can Tell You About Everything
10Y-2Y Spread: 0.37% (normal)
